---
title: "Molecular case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Molecular ($5.03) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 13 items with odds, observed 90.72% over 8,121 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:39Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Molecular](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Molecular

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=all)

Price · $5.03 · 7.19 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $4.57 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.72% · 8,121 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.41% ±9.63 592 openings

7 days · 91.06% ±2.94 6,450 openings

30 days · 90.72% ±2.63 8,121 openings

since tracking started · 90.72% ±2.63 8,121 openings

83.0% 93.2% 103.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=24h) | 592 | 93.41% ±9.63 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=7d) | 6,450 | 91.06% ±2.94 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular) | 8,121 | 90.72% ±2.63 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/molecular?window=all) | 8,121 | 90.72% ±2.63 | −0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,177 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $109 155 coins | 2.4% | 5 | 8.2 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Green Laminate (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-green-laminate-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $40.19 57.42 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $26.59 37.98 coins | 13.9% | 216 | 195.4 | 1.11× |
| [SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $18.82 26.88 coins | 12.3% | 239 | 245.3 | 0.97× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 40 | $14.04 20.06 coins | 7.7% | 213 | 204.4 | 1.04× |
| [P2000 \| Coach Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $7.83 11.19 coins | 12.0% | 572 | 572.4 | 1.00× |
| [FAMAS \| Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.04 7.2 coins | 8.8% | 637 | 654.2 | 0.97× |
| [AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pop-awp-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $4.97 7.1 coins | 7.6% | 585 | 572.4 | 1.02× |
| [P2000 \| Pulse (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-pulse-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 8.6% | 808 | 817.7 | 0.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $3.93 5.61 coins | 8.6% | 792 | 817.7 | 0.97× |
| [P250 \| Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $2.38 3.4 coins | 10.4% | 1,583 | 1635.4 | 0.97× |
| [MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $1.82 2.6 coins | 4.0% | 825 | 817.7 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.84 1.2 coins | 3.7% | 1,702 | 1635.4 | 1.04× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=molecular)

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $5.04 7.2 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[MAC-10 | Heat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-heat-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $1.82 2.6 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[SSG 08 | Death's Head (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-deaths-head-field-tested) [DrWein](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DrWein) $5.03 7.19 coins $18.82 26.88 coins 3.74x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[FAMAS | Hexane (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-hexane-factory-new) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $5.04 7.2 coins 1.00x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $5.03 7.19 coins $2.38 3.4 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[P2000 | Coach Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $7.83 11.19 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[P2000 | Coach Class (Battle-Scarred) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-coach-class-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.03 7.19 coins $7.83 11.19 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[P250 | Steel Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-steel-disruption-minimal-wear) [PsIcHo csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/PsIcHo%20csgoroll.com) $5.03 7.19 coins $2.38 3.4 coins 0.47x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

[USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) [MalstR0m](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MalstR0m) $5.03 7.19 coins $0.84 1.2 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 14:09 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $5.03 | 90.89% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $5.03 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $5.03 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $5.01 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $4.96 | 90.88% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $4.98 | 90.96% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.07 | 90.95% | 13 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $5.07 | 90.88% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $5.07 | 90.86% | 13 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $5.07 | 90.87% | 13 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $5.06 | 90.86% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $5.06 | 90.88% | 13 |
| 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $5.04 | 90.95% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.98 | 90.95% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed red 0.1% mil spec 68.0% classified 4.9% restricted 20.0% industrial 7.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt