--- title: "Momentum case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Momentum ($156.31) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 83.84% over 49 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum rendered: 2026-11-11T20:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Momentum](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Momentum A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=all) Price · $156.31 · 223 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $142.10 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.84% · 49 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 66.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4 openings · below min 7 days · 41 openings · below min 30 days · 49 openings · below min since tracking started · 49 openings · below min -0.5% 113.3% 227.0% **Small sample.** 49 openings and 6.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=24h) | 4 | 90.36% ±135.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=7d) | 41 | 56.40% ±42.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum) | 49 | 83.84% ±38.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/momentum?window=all) | 49 | 83.84% ±38.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,609 2,298 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,049 1,499 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $1,008 1,440 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $939 1,341 coins | 24.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× | | [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $629 899 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $598 854 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $587 838 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 83 | $522 746 coins | 4.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $472 674 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $468 668 coins | 4.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $455 650 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 222 | $449 642 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $274 391 coins | 18.1% | 3 | 4.6 | 0.65× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $262 374 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 1.0 | — | | [★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 26 | $225 321 coins | 6.0% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $189 270 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.41× | | [SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-death-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $177 253 coins | 5.6% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.91× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $127 181 coins | 5.3% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [Desert Eagle \| Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) | 20.0% | $23.76 33.94 coins | 3.3% | 11 | 9.8 | 1.12× | | [Sticker \| nex (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cologne-2015) | 20.0% | $15.58 22.26 coins | 2.2% | 8 | 9.8 | 0.82× | | [Sticker \| ELEAGUE (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eleague-foil-atlanta-2017) | 20.0% | $14.73 21.04 coins | 2.1% | 14 | 9.8 | 1.43× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $154 221 coins $888 1,269 coins 5.75x 2026-11-04 20:10 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-cool-mint-field-tested) Hidden $154 221 coins $888 1,269 coins 5.75x 2026-11-04 20:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Lore (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-lore-field-tested) Hidden $154 221 coins $597 853 coins 3.87x 2026-11-05 23:24 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $154 221 coins $543 775 coins 3.51x 2026-11-04 20:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=momentum) [Sticker | ELEAGUE (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eleague-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $156 223 coins $14.73 21.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [Souvenir Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-desert-eagle-hand-cannon-well-worn) Hidden $156 223 coins $274 391 coins 1.75x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $262 374 coins 1.67x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [Sticker | ELEAGUE (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eleague-foil-atlanta-2017) [Call me Johnny](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Call%20me%20Johnny) $156 223 coins $14.73 21.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:57 UTC [Sticker | nex (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cologne-2015) Hidden $156 223 coins $15.58 22.26 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC [Sticker | nex (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nex-foil-cologne-2015) Hidden $156 223 coins $15.58 22.26 coins 0.10x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) Hidden $156 223 coins $23.76 33.94 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC [Sticker | ELEAGUE (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eleague-foil-atlanta-2017) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $156 223 coins $14.73 21.04 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 00:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Naga (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-naga-factory-new) Hidden $154 221 coins $20.08 28.69 coins 0.13x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC [Sticker | ELEAGUE (Foil) | Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eleague-foil-atlanta-2017) Hidden $154 221 coins $15.10 21.57 coins 0.10x 2026-11-08 03:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $154 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 21.1% extraordinary 4.6% legendary 0.4% restricted 29.4% classified 4.5% exotic 40.0% best hit $888 (5.75x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt