---
title: "Monkey Business case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Monkey Business ($9.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 13 items with odds, observed 89.36% over 2,022 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Monkey Business](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Monkey Business

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=all)

Price · $9.12 · 13.03 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $8.29 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.36% · 2,022 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 38.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 85.39% ±10.61 135 openings

7 days · 89.12% ±2.75 1,889 openings

30 days · 89.36% ±2.65 2,022 openings

since tracking started · 89.36% ±2.65 2,022 openings

74.0% 85.3% 96.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=24h) | 135 | 85.39% ±10.6 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=7d) | 1,889 | 89.12% ±2.75 | −1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business) | 2,022 | 89.36% ±2.65 | −1.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monkey-business?window=all) | 2,022 | 89.36% ±2.65 | −1.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,022 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [ESL One Cologne 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/esl-one-cologne-2014-challengers) | 1 in 10,000 | $60.06 85.8 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [P250 \| Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) | 1 in 42 | $24.49 34.98 coins | 7.1% | 37 | 48.3 | 0.77× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $24.23 34.62 coins | 8.8% | 51 | 60.7 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $23.86 34.08 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $21.54 30.77 coins | 6.5% | 52 | 50.6 | 1.03× |
| [UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $12.05 17.21 coins | 14.5% | 205 | 202.2 | 1.01× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) | 20.0% | $11.24 16.06 coins | 27.1% | 431 | 404.4 | 1.07× |
| [Ground Rebel \| Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) | 1 in 14 | $8.46 12.09 coins | 7.1% | 140 | 141.5 | 0.99× |
| [Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-factory-new) | 10.0% | $6.94 9.91 coins | 8.4% | 205 | 202.2 | 1.01× |
| [M249 \| Nebula Crusader (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-nebula-crusader-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $5.56 7.95 coins | 4.7% | 130 | 141.5 | 0.92× |
| [Sticker \| Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) | 1 in 13 | $5.55 7.93 coins | 5.4% | 155 | 161.8 | 0.96× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.81 6.87 coins | 5.8% | 207 | 202.2 | 1.02× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) | 20.0% | $1.79 2.56 coins | 4.3% | 408 | 404.4 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=monkey-business)

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $11.24 16.06 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-monkey-business-well-worn) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $11.24 16.06 coins 1.23x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[Ground Rebel | Elite Crew agent · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ground-rebel-elite-crew) [H - 暁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H%20%20-%20%20%E6%9A%81) $9.12 13.03 coins $8.46 12.09 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-factory-new) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $6.94 9.91 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) [H - 暁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H%20%20-%20%20%E6%9A%81) $9.12 13.03 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:53 UTC

[Sticker | Ocean Sunset Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ocean-sunset-flick-holo) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $5.55 7.93 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Twist (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-twist-factory-new) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $1.79 2.56 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[P250 | Undertow (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-undertow-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.12 13.03 coins $24.49 34.98 coins 2.68x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.12 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.32 | 90.92% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed base 0.0% classified 42.5% restricted 22.5% blue 7.0% remarkable 8.0% mil spec 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt