--- title: "Monochromatic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Monochromatic ($6.66) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 89.40% over 11K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic rendered: 2026-11-11T15:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Monochromatic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Monochromatic A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=all) Price · $6.66 · 9.51 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $6.05 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.40% · 11K openings, odds method Variance · 9.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.31% ±16.09 1,362 openings 7 days · 88.09% ±6.24 8,970 openings 30 days · 89.40% ±5.65 11K openings since tracking started · 89.40% ±5.65 11K openings 60.5% 78.0% 95.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=24h) | 1,362 | 77.31% ±16.1 | −1.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=7d) | 8,970 | 88.09% ±6.24 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic) | 11K | 89.40% ±5.65 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/monochromatic?window=all) | 11K | 89.40% ±5.65 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $426 609 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $218 311 coins | 1.8% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $146 209 coins | 36.3% | 166 | 164.5 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Graphite (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-graphite-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $116 166 coins | 1.9% | 11 | 11.0 | 1.00× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.00 110 coins | 6.4% | 48 | 54.8 | 0.88× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 15 | $15.79 22.56 coins | 17.0% | 681 | 712.7 | 0.96× | | [SSG 08 \| Detour (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-well-worn) | 16.0% | $11.47 16.38 coins | 30.3% | 1,740 | 1754.2 | 0.99× | | [XM1014 \| Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) | 55.3% | $0.47 0.67 coins | 4.3% | 6,070 | 6067.5 | 1.00× | | [Five-SeveN \| Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) | 20.0% | $0.42 0.6 coins | 1.4% | 2,241 | 2192.8 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $6.74 9.63 coins $426 608 coins 63.14x 2026-11-05 23:17 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=monochromatic) [XM1014 | Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $0.47 0.67 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) [H - 暁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H%20%20-%20%20%E6%9A%81) $6.66 9.51 coins $0.42 0.6 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $0.42 0.6 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 2.37x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [XM1014 | Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) [H - 暁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H%20%20-%20%20%E6%9A%81) $6.66 9.51 coins $0.47 0.67 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-well-worn) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $11.47 16.38 coins 1.72x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $15.79 22.56 coins 2.37x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [SSG 08 | Detour (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-detour-well-worn) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $11.47 16.38 coins 1.72x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [XM1014 | Quicksilver (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-quicksilver-field-tested) [H - 暁](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/H%20%20-%20%20%E6%9A%81) $6.66 9.51 coins $0.47 0.67 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC [Five-SeveN | Silver Quartz (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-silver-quartz-factory-new) Hidden $6.66 9.51 coins $0.42 0.6 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $6.66 | 90.91% | 9 | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $6.66 | 90.89% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $6.65 | 90.87% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $6.74 | 90.88% | 9 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $6.75 | 90.91% | 9 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $6.74 | 90.89% | 9 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $6.74 | 90.93% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $6.71 | 90.89% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% mil spec 92.8% classified 6.6% restricted 0.5% best hit $426 (63.14x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt