--- title: "Moonlight case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Moonlight ($152.19) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 99.57% over 74 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Moonlight](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Moonlight A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=all) Price · $152.19 · 217 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $138.35 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 99.57% · 74 openings, odds method Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 56.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 73 openings · below min 30 days · 74 openings · below min since tracking started · 74 openings · below min 62.0% 90.3% 118.5% **Small sample.** 74 openings and 20.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=24h) | 40 | 87.39% ±25.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=7d) | 73 | 96.64% ±18.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight) | 74 | 99.57% ±18.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/moonlight?window=all) | 74 | 99.57% ±18.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 74 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 200 | $941 1,345 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $477 682 coins | 6.9% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.35× | | [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 50 | $428 611 coins | 6.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.68× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $327 467 coins | 7.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $307 438 coins | 8.9% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $241 345 coins | 3.5% | 3 | 1.5 | 2.03× | | [Dual Berettas \| Duelist (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-duelist-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $213 304 coins | 23.1% | 14 | 11.1 | 1.26× | | [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $176 251 coins | 19.0% | 15 | 11.1 | 1.35× | | [UMP-45 \| Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $92.40 132 coins | 4.0% | 2 | 4.4 | 0.45× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $87.50 125 coins | 1.9% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $81.20 116 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $77.00 110 coins | 3.9% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.35× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $52.95 75.64 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.35× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $49.90 71.29 coins | 1.4% | 4 | 3.0 | 1.35× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $42.11 60.15 coins | 1.8% | 4 | 4.4 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) | 17.5% | $26.59 37.98 coins | 3.4% | 8 | 12.9 | 0.62× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=moonlight) [★ Bowie Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-factory-new) Hidden $152 217 coins $241 345 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) Hidden $152 217 coins $26.59 37.98 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [UMP-45 | Minotaur's Labyrinth (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-minotaurs-labyrinth-factory-new) Hidden $152 217 coins $92.40 132 coins 0.61x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-field-tested) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $152 217 coins $26.59 37.98 coins 0.17x 2026-11-11 17:14 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) Hidden $152 217 coins $42.11 60.15 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $152 217 coins $49.90 71.29 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-astral-jormungandr-battle-scarred) Hidden $152 217 coins $307 438 coins 2.01x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $152 217 coins $87.50 125 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $152 217 coins $49.90 71.29 coins 0.33x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) Hidden $152 217 coins $176 251 coins 1.15x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $152 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $152 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $159 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 38.5% extraordinary 5.0% restricted 26.0% mil spec 6.0% classified 24.5% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt