--- title: "Murder case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Murder ($2,755.61) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 14 items with odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder rendered: 2026-11-11T13:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Murder](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Murder A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=all) Price · $2,755.61 · 3,937 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $2,505.10 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker **No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder) | 0 | — | — | — | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/murder?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 12.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 100 | $38K 54,245 coins | 15.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [EMS Katowice 2014 Challengers other · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/ems-katowice-2014-challengers) | 1 in 100 | $22.4K 32,005 coins | 8.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 67 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 12.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 9.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $9,870 14,100 coins | 5.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Minimal Wear) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $4,655 6,650 coins | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 25 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 6.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 17 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-factory-new) | 13.0% | $1,285 1,835 coins | 6.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 15.0% | $911 1,302 coins | 5.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 15.0% | $605 864 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 11.5% | $472 674 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-smoke-out-minimal-wear) | 25.0% | $151 216 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=murder) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days No history yet ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2,756 | 90.91% | 14 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,766 | 90.91% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 7.5% remarkable 2.5% base 1.0% covert 34.5% extraordinary 39.5% epic 15.0% 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt