---
title: "Mutation Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Mutation Case ($185.88) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 94.90% over 948 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:33Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Mutation Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Mutation Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=all)

Price · $185.88 · 266 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $168.98 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.90% · 948 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 63.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 97 openings · below min

7 days · 94.83% ±4.73 744 openings

30 days · 94.90% ±4.19 948 openings

since tracking started · 94.90% ±4.19 948 openings

85.0% 98.8% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=24h) | 97 | 98.59% ±13.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=7d) | 744 | 94.83% ±4.73 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case) | 948 | 94.90% ±4.19 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/mutation-case?window=all) | 948 | 94.90% ±4.19 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 949 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-rust-coat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $465 664 coins | 13.8% | 55 | 47.5 | 1.16× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $396 565 coins | 4.7% | 20 | 19.0 | 1.05× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $337 482 coins | 10.0% | 48 | 47.5 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-factory-new) | 10.0% | $295 421 coins | 17.4% | 105 | 94.9 | 1.11× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $251 359 coins | 7.4% | 44 | 47.5 | 0.93× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) | 10.0% | $242 346 coins | 14.3% | 96 | 94.9 | 1.01× |
| [Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) | 10.0% | $172 246 coins | 10.2% | 101 | 94.9 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) | 13.0% | $124 177 coins | 9.5% | 133 | 123.4 | 1.08× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $79.10 113 coins | 4.7% | 93 | 94.9 | 0.98× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $51.58 73.68 coins | 4.6% | 129 | 142.3 | 0.91× |
| [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 15.0% | $38.19 54.56 coins | 3.4% | 125 | 142.3 | 0.88× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=mutation-case)

[P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-factory-new) Hidden $186 266 coins $337 482 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 19:03 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $186 266 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) [BLVCK CRY$TAL](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BLVCK%20CRY%24TAL) $186 266 coins $38.19 54.56 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:57 UTC

[Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-minimal-wear) Hidden $186 266 coins $124 177 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 18:50 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) [ᗪᗩᑎY G](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%97%AA%E1%97%A9%E1%91%8EY%20G) $186 266 coins $38.19 54.56 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 18:49 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $186 266 coins $172 246 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 18:27 UTC

[M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) Hidden $186 266 coins $79.10 113 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC

[Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-field-tested) Hidden $186 266 coins $172 246 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 18:21 UTC

[Glock-18 | Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) Hidden $186 266 coins $38.19 54.56 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 17:48 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Rust Coat (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-rust-coat-well-worn) Hidden $186 266 coins $242 346 coins 1.30x 2026-11-11 17:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $186 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $186 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $188 | 90.91% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 35.0% extraordinary 2.0% restricted 33.0% mil spec 15.0% classified 15.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt