--- title: "My one and only case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "My one and only ($23.70) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 22 items with odds, observed 90.07% over 25.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only rendered: 2026-11-11T20:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [My one and only](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · My one and only A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=all) Price · $23.70 · 33.85 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $21.54 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.07% · 25.5K openings, odds method Variance · 648.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 909 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2,135 openings · below min 7 days · 83.49% ±33.79 21.6K openings 30 days · 90.07% ±31.12 25.5K openings since tracking started · 90.07% ±31.12 25.5K openings -0.5% 97.3% 195.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=24h) | 2,135 | 86.43% ±108.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=7d) | 21.6K | 83.49% ±33.8 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only) | 25.5K | 90.07% ±31.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/my-one-and-only?window=all) | 25.5K | 90.07% ±31.1 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 11,111 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 22.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Factory New) 4x Titan (Holo) (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-factory-new-4x-titan-holo-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $24.5K 35,000 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $9,534 13,620 coins | 22.1% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 17.3% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,930 9,900 coins | 16.1% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,703 2,433 coins | 4.0% | 8 | 12.8 | 0.63× | | [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,091 1,559 coins | 2.5% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $948 1,355 coins | 2.2% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $887 1,267 coins | 2.1% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [Sticker \| mousesports \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mousesports-katowice-2014) | 1 in 2,000 | $667 953 coins | 1.5% | 13 | 12.8 | 1.02× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $636 909 coins | 1.5% | 9 | 12.8 | 0.70× | | [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $421 602 coins | 1.0% | 12 | 12.8 | 0.94× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $390 557 coins | 0.9% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $385 550 coins | 0.9% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $372 531 coins | 0.9% | 11 | 12.8 | 0.86× | | [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 2,000 | $325 464 coins | 0.8% | 18 | 12.8 | 1.41× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $307 438 coins | 0.7% | 15 | 12.8 | 1.17× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $260 371 coins | 0.6% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $192 274 coins | 0.4% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.10× | | [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $161 230 coins | 0.7% | 21 | 23.0 | 0.91× | | [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $157 224 coins | 0.4% | 10 | 12.8 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| MOUZ \| Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) | 99.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 25,300 | 25295.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins $53.5K 76,380 coins 2,256x 2026-11-08 21:49 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $53.5K 76,380 coins 2,224x 2026-11-06 18:42 UTC [Sticker | iBUYPOWER (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $53.5K 76,380 coins 2,224x 2026-11-03 07:05 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Vers](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Vers) $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-08 02:44 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-07 19:23 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-07 13:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-07 04:55 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [1ikedior](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/1ikedior) $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-06 20:51 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [michi325](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/michi325) $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-05 22:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $24.04 34.34 coins $10K 14,325 coins 417.2x 2026-11-04 20:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=my-one-and-only) [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) [AcostaKurin](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AcostaKurin) $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ | Paris 2023 sticker · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-paris-2023) Hidden $23.70 33.85 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.70 | 90.90% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.04 | 90.90% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% covert 0.6% classified 0.1% high 0.1% restricted 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 0.1% epic 0.1% Rare 99.0% best hit $53.5K (2,256x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt