--- title: "Napalm case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Napalm ($86.20) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 25 items with odds, observed 74.72% over 53 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Napalm](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Napalm A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=all) Price · $86.20 · 123 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $78.36 from 25 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.72% · 53 openings, odds method Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.3% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 51 openings · below min 30 days · 53 openings · below min since tracking started · 53 openings · below min 29.5% 75.5% 121.5% **Small sample.** 53 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=7d) | 51 | 75.57% ±45.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm) | 53 | 74.72% ±44.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/napalm?window=all) | 53 | 74.72% ±44.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,888 4,125 coins | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,230 3,185 coins | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,069 2,955 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Poseidon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-poseidon-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,241 1,773 coins | 4.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Classic Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,084 1,548 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $606 865 coins | 0.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $454 648 coins | 16.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 167 | $445 636 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $414 591 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $398 568 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-factory-new) | 1 in 133 | $377 539 coins | 3.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 200 | $265 379 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $235 336 coins | 10.5% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 111 | $142 203 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 125 | $134 192 coins | 1.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $106 151 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $77.00 110 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.39× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 16 | $76.30 109 coins | 6.0% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.91× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) | 14.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 13.5% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $53.82 76.89 coins | 6.2% | 4 | 4.8 | 0.84× | | [Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) | 15.0% | $40.87 58.38 coins | 7.8% | 12 | 7.9 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $40.04 57.2 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.67× | | [StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sg-553-pulse-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $12.50 17.85 coins | 2.4% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.13× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) | 15.0% | $5.56 7.94 coins | 1.1% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.88× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=napalm) [Sticker | Liquid Fire sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $5.77 8.24 coins 0.07x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $40.17 57.38 coins 0.48x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [MAC-10 | Propaganda (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-factory-new) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $54.45 77.78 coins 0.64x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $41.34 59.06 coins 0.49x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-minimal-wear) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $392 560 coins 4.64x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $84.42 121 coins $225 322 coins 2.67x 2026-11-08 04:03 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $41.34 59.06 coins 0.49x 2026-11-08 04:00 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $41.34 59.06 coins 0.49x 2026-11-08 04:00 UTC [AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-well-worn) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.90x 2026-11-08 04:00 UTC [Desert Eagle | Code Red (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-code-red-field-tested) Hidden $84.42 121 coins $41.34 59.06 coins 0.49x 2026-11-08 04:00 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $86.20 | 90.91% | 25 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $86.32 | 90.91% | 25 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $84.42 | 90.91% | 25 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 3.7% covert 56.3% classified 10.0% restricted 15.0% high 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt