---
title: "Navy case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Navy ($42.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 102.45% over 1,543 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Navy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Navy

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=all)

Price · $42.07 · 60.1 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $38.24 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 102.45% · 1,543 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91 openings · below min

7 days · 102.20% ±16.61 1,367 openings

30 days · 102.45% ±15.64 1,543 openings

since tracking started · 102.45% ±15.64 1,543 openings

13.5% 77.3% 141.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=24h) | 91 | 77.22% ±63.2 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=7d) | 1,367 | 102.20% ±16.6 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy) | 1,543 | 102.45% ±15.6 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/navy?window=all) | 1,543 | 102.45% ±15.6 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,543 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 6,667 | $6,510 9,300 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-katowice-2014) | 1 in 4,000 | $3,136 4,480 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,716 3,880 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,865 2,665 coins | 3.9% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.05× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $595 850 coins | 1.6% | 3 | 1.5 | 1.94× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 500 | $533 761 coins | 2.8% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.65× |
| [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $451 645 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 370 | $270 385 coins | 1.9% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× |
| [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $169 242 coins | 3.3% | 9 | 11.6 | 0.78× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 303 | $151 215 coins | 1.3% | 6 | 5.1 | 1.18× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $148 211 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 7.7 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $109 156 coins | 5.7% | 27 | 30.9 | 0.87× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-blue-steel-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $81.20 116 coins | 1.9% | 23 | 13.9 | 1.66× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $63.41 90.59 coins | 2.5% | 20 | 23.1 | 0.86× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $59.74 85.34 coins | 7.8% | 87 | 77.2 | 1.13× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 80 | $53.08 75.83 coins | 1.7% | 15 | 19.3 | 0.78× |
| [StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $40.83 58.33 coins | 7.5% | 109 | 108.0 | 1.01× |
| [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 25.0% | $25.44 36.34 coins | 16.6% | 389 | 385.8 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) | 39.9% | $21.68 30.97 coins | 22.6% | 620 | 615.3 | 1.01× |
| [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) | 15.0% | $17.88 25.55 coins | 7.0% | 217 | 231.4 | 0.94× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $2,762 3,945 coins 66.53x 2026-11-06 01:05 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) [coco](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/coco) $41.51 59.3 coins $2,762 3,945 coins 66.53x 2026-11-05 02:26 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 46.96x 2026-11-06 02:34 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 46.96x 2026-11-06 00:57 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $1,949 2,785 coins 46.96x 2026-11-04 12:56 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 44.34x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-battle-scarred) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $1,865 2,665 coins 44.34x 2026-11-09 23:10 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $595 850 coins 14.33x 2026-11-06 01:36 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $595 850 coins 14.33x 2026-11-06 01:12 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $41.51 59.3 coins $595 850 coins 14.33x 2026-11-05 01:35 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=navy)

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $21.68 30.97 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:31 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Justice (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mag-7-justice-factory-new) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $40.83 58.33 coins 0.97x 2026-11-11 09:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-the-emperor-battle-scarred) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $59.74 85.34 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 09:36 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 08:35 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 08:04 UTC

[AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-field-tested) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $109 156 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 08:03 UTC

[AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $25.44 36.34 coins 0.60x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $21.68 30.97 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) Hidden $42.07 60.1 coins $21.68 30.97 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-minimal-wear) [fast csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/fast%20csgoroll.com) $42.07 60.1 coins $21.68 30.97 coins 0.52x 2026-11-11 07:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $42.07 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $41.53 | 90.90% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $41.51 | 90.91% | 20 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 12.1% high 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% classified 32.9% industrial 39.9% mil spec 15.0% best hit $2,762 (66.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt