--- title: "Nebula case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nebula ($57.46) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 94.81% over 995 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nebula](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nebula A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=all) Price · $57.46 · 82.09 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $52.24 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.81% · 995 openings, odds method Variance · 4.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 58 openings · below min 7 days · 91.88% ±15.57 702 openings 30 days · 94.81% ±13.09 995 openings since tracking started · 94.81% ±13.09 995 openings 23.5% 77.8% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=24h) | 58 | 77.57% ±53.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=7d) | 702 | 91.88% ±15.6 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula) | 995 | 94.81% ±13.1 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nebula?window=all) | 995 | 94.81% ±13.1 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 997 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $931 1,330 coins | 17.8% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 200 | $832 1,188 coins | 8.0% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.80× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 125 | $449 641 coins | 6.9% | 10 | 8.0 | 1.25× | | [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $200 286 coins | 13.4% | 39 | 34.9 | 1.12× | | [Desert Eagle \| Golden Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-golden-koi-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $170 243 coins | 8.1% | 24 | 24.9 | 0.96× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $129 184 coins | 2.5% | 12 | 10.0 | 1.20× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-freehand-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $113 162 coins | 2.6% | 14 | 12.0 | 1.17× | | [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-battle-scarred) | 1 in 29 | $72.80 104 coins | 4.9% | 33 | 34.9 | 0.95× | | [Sawed-Off \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $66.50 95 coins | 5.1% | 39 | 39.9 | 0.98× | | [Sawed-Off \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-first-class-well-worn) | 1 in 19 | $56.76 81.09 coins | 5.8% | 71 | 53.3 | 1.33× | | [Glock-18 \| Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $49.41 70.59 coins | 5.1% | 55 | 53.3 | 1.03× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Constrictor (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-constrictor-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $37.56 53.65 coins | 2.2% | 14 | 29.9 | 0.47× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-mangrove-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $26.67 38.1 coins | 2.0% | 43 | 39.9 | 1.08× | | [Dual Berettas \| Marina (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-marina-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $24.23 34.62 coins | 2.5% | 62 | 53.3 | 1.16× | | [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $23.96 34.23 coins | 2.5% | 53 | 53.3 | 0.99× | | [P2000 \| Grassland Leaves (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-grassland-leaves-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $21.74 31.05 coins | 2.2% | 47 | 53.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $17.07 24.38 coins | 1.7% | 45 | 53.3 | 0.84× | | [Tec-9 \| Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $13.29 18.98 coins | 1.4% | 44 | 53.3 | 0.82× | | [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $10.79 15.42 coins | 1.1% | 54 | 53.3 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir PP-Bizon \| Night Ops (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-pp-bizon-night-ops-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $9.22 13.17 coins | 0.9% | 48 | 53.3 | 0.90× | | [Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 19 | $9.09 12.98 coins | 0.9% | 60 | 53.3 | 1.12× | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $8.96 12.8 coins | 0.9% | 48 | 53.3 | 0.90× | | [P90 \| Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $6.36 9.09 coins | 0.7% | 57 | 53.3 | 1.07× | | [Negev \| Infrastructure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-field-tested) | 10.8% | $4.18 5.97 coins | 0.9% | 110 | 107.7 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-07 07:58 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-06 18:31 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-06 18:31 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-06 18:31 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [suppEN](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/suppEN) $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-05 14:37 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-05 00:50 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [Darkpik](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Darkpik) $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-04 22:49 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) [Stigerud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Stigerud) $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-04 08:49 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-04 08:41 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-field-tested) Hidden $56.83 81.18 coins $944 1,349 coins 16.62x 2026-11-03 20:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nebula) [StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $17.07 24.38 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [Tec-9 | Hades (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-hades-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $13.29 18.98 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 13:47 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-field-tested) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $8.96 12.8 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 12:26 UTC [P90 | Blind Spot (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blind-spot-field-tested) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $6.36 9.09 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 11:12 UTC [Negev | Infrastructure (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-infrastructure-field-tested) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $4.18 5.97 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:56 UTC [Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $9.09 12.98 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 05:11 UTC [AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-minimal-wear) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $23.96 34.23 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $57.46 82.09 coins $449 641 coins 7.81x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $57.46 82.09 coins $10.79 15.42 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [Glock-18 | Reactor (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-reactor-factory-new) [Medical Shit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Medical%20Shit) $57.46 82.09 coins $49.41 70.59 coins 0.86x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $57.46 | 90.91% | 24 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $57.85 | 90.91% | 24 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $56.83 | 90.90% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 8.0% covert 9.5% mil spec 25.0% restricted 20.0% industrial 21.4% classified 16.1% best hit $944 (16.62x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt