--- title: "Neon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Neon ($92.84) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 97.69% over 10 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Neon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Neon A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=all) Price · $92.84 · 133 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $84.40 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.69% · 10 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 41.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 55.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 10 openings · below min 30 days · 10 openings · below min since tracking started · 10 openings · below min 58.0% 97.8% 137.5% **Small sample.** 10 openings and 4.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=7d) | 10 | 97.69% ±39.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon) | 10 | 97.69% ±39.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neon?window=all) | 10 | 97.69% ±39.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-neon-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 222 | $465 664 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $360 514 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $220 314 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $192 274 coins | 20.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $160 229 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $138 197 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $136 194 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $121 173 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-factory-new) | 1 in 16 | $118 169 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) | 22.0% | $117 167 coins | 30.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.36× | | [AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $108 154 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $107 153 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $81.20 116 coins | 4.8% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $77.00 110 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-fairy-tale-minimal-wear) | 32.9% | $40.98 58.55 coins | 16.0% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× | | [CZ75-Auto \| The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) | 1 in 24 | $25.23 36.05 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 11.4% | $22.48 32.12 coins | 3.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.75× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=neon) [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $92.84 133 coins $108 154 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $92.84 133 coins $117 167 coins 1.26x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $92.84 133 coins $117 167 coins 1.26x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-factory-new) Hidden $92.84 133 coins $117 167 coins 1.26x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $92.84 133 coins $108 154 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [AWP | Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pink-ddpat-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $92.84 133 coins $108 154 coins 1.16x 2026-11-09 18:01 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $92.74 132 coins $21.39 30.56 coins 0.23x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC [AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) Hidden $92.74 132 coins $115 164 coins 1.24x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $92.74 132 coins $74.90 107 coins 0.81x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC [Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-hyper-beast-factory-new) [I lost my MBA tuition fee](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/I%20lost%20my%20MBA%20tuition%20fee) $92.74 132 coins $21.39 30.56 coins 0.23x 2026-11-07 16:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $92.84 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $93.74 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $92.74 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed restricted 3.9% covert 32.3% mil spec 9.0% classified 54.8% extraordinary 0.1% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt