--- title: "NEONFUSION case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "NEONFUSION ($11.51) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.07% over 2,797 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion rendered: 2026-11-11T15:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [NEONFUSION](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · NEONFUSION A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=all) Price · $11.51 · 16.45 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $10.47 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.07% · 2,797 openings, odds method Variance · 6.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 88.30% ±23.24 456 openings 7 days · 87.52% ±10.28 2,351 openings 30 days · 90.07% ±9.44 2,797 openings since tracking started · 90.07% ±9.44 2,797 openings 64.5% 88.3% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=24h) | 456 | 88.30% ±23.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=7d) | 2,351 | 87.52% ±10.3 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion) | 2,797 | 90.07% ±9.44 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/neonfusion?window=all) | 2,797 | 90.07% ±9.44 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,797 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $226 323 coins | 17.3% | 21 | 22.4 | 0.94× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $183 261 coins | 2.6% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.95× | | [MAC-10 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $113 161 coins | 26.9% | 64 | 69.9 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-rider-battle-scarred) | 1 in 250 | $74.20 106 coins | 2.8% | 19 | 11.2 | 1.70× | | [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $52.35 74.78 coins | 25.0% | 146 | 139.8 | 1.04× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $36.97 52.82 coins | 1.1% | 3 | 8.4 | 0.36× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $29.91 42.73 coins | 3.4% | 33 | 33.6 | 0.98× | | [StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ump-45-primal-saber-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $12.45 17.78 coins | 3.6% | 81 | 83.9 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-trigger-discipline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $4.31 6.15 coins | 2.9% | 205 | 195.8 | 1.05× | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) | 32.3% | $2.37 3.39 coins | 7.3% | 922 | 903.4 | 1.02× | | [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $1.81 2.58 coins | 2.6% | 414 | 419.6 | 0.99× | | [Souvenir AUG \| Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) | 32.4% | $1.46 2.09 coins | 4.5% | 885 | 904.8 | 0.98× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=neonfusion) [StatTrak™ AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $29.91 42.73 coins 2.60x 2026-11-11 15:54 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $1.46 2.09 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $2.37 3.39 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $11.51 16.45 coins $1.46 2.09 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $1.81 2.58 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $2.37 3.39 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $1.46 2.09 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $2.37 3.39 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Random Access (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-random-access-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $1.46 2.09 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC [FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-well-worn) Hidden $11.51 16.45 coins $2.37 3.39 coins 0.21x 2026-11-11 15:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.51 | 90.92% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.63 | 90.88% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.71 | 90.91% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.9% classified 3.5% restricted 86.7% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt