--- title: "Nightcrawler case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nightcrawler ($36.11) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 19 items with odds, observed 91.13% over 1,250 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nightcrawler](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nightcrawler A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=all) Price · $36.11 · 51.59 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $32.83 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.13% · 1,250 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 8 openings · below min 7 days · 93.10% ±8.68 1,152 openings 30 days · 91.13% ±8.34 1,250 openings since tracking started · 91.13% ±8.34 1,250 openings -0.5% 89.3% 179.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=24h) | 8 | 74.96% ±103.2 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=7d) | 1,152 | 93.10% ±8.68 | +0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler) | 1,250 | 91.13% ±8.34 | +0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightcrawler?window=all) | 1,250 | 91.13% ±8.34 | +0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,250 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $395 564 coins | 4.8% | 5 | 5.0 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-icarus-fell-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $385 550 coins | 1.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $328 469 coins | 2.0% | 5 | 2.5 | 2.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 111 | $235 336 coins | 6.4% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $195 279 coins | 4.8% | 11 | 10.0 | 1.10× | | [★ Bayonet \| Night (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-night-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $181 258 coins | 3.6% | 9 | 8.1 | 1.11× | | [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $179 256 coins | 10.9% | 19 | 25.0 | 0.76× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $154 220 coins | 2.3% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.12× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $153 219 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 3.8 | 0.27× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $95.20 136 coins | 4.3% | 26 | 18.8 | 1.39× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $91.70 131 coins | 14.0% | 66 | 62.5 | 1.06× | | [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $57.77 82.53 coins | 12.3% | 98 | 87.5 | 1.12× | | [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $51.58 73.68 coins | 12.7% | 88 | 101.3 | 0.87× | | [★ Survival Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-night-stripe-battle-scarred) | 1 in 25 | $45.04 64.35 coins | 5.5% | 43 | 50.0 | 0.86× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-nitro-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $27.41 39.16 coins | 2.5% | 38 | 37.5 | 1.01× | | [Souvenir USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $17.68 25.26 coins | 0.3% | 12 | 6.9 | 1.75× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 20.0% | $10.93 15.61 coins | 6.7% | 237 | 250.0 | 0.95× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 20.0% | $3.27 4.67 coins | 2.0% | 259 | 250.0 | 1.04× | | [USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $2.99 4.27 coins | 2.3% | 315 | 312.5 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nightcrawler) [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) [Miltsukkaaaw :3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Miltsukkaaaw%20%3A3) $36.11 51.59 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $179 256 coins 4.96x 2026-11-11 12:00 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) [Avyrian](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Avyrian) $36.11 51.59 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [USP-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $2.99 4.27 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $10.93 15.61 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) [Medical Shit](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Medical%20Shit) $36.11 51.59 coins $10.93 15.61 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 04:40 UTC [USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $3.27 4.67 coins 0.09x 2026-11-10 01:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-factory-new) Hidden $36.11 51.59 coins $179 256 coins 4.96x 2026-11-10 01:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $36.11 | 90.91% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $35.86 | 90.90% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $36.10 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 19.0% restricted 28.1% classified 30.6% extraordinary 1.8% mil spec 20.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt