---
title: "Nightmare case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Nightmare ($779.58) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 93.78% over 309 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nightmare](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nightmare

A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=all)

Price · $779.58 · 1,114 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $708.71 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 93.78% · 309 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.3% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 17 openings · below min

7 days · 98.33% ±20.67 258 openings

30 days · 93.78% ±18.88 309 openings

since tracking started · 93.78% ±18.88 309 openings

-0.5% 74.5% 149.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=24h) | 17 | 68.52% ±80.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=7d) | 258 | 98.33% ±20.7 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare) | 309 | 93.78% ±18.9 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nightmare?window=all) | 309 | 93.78% ±18.9 | +0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 309 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $12.8K 18,291 coins | 4.5% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 222 | $7,455 10,650 coins | 4.7% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 125 | $6,188 8,840 coins | 7.0% | 1 | 2.5 | 0.40× |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 56 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 12.8% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 333 | $4,088 5,840 coins | 1.7% | 2 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 19 | $2,177 3,110 coins | 16.0% | 24 | 16.1 | 1.49× |
| [AWP \| Medusa (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $2,100 3,000 coins | 10.4% | 12 | 10.8 | 1.11× |
| [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 15 | $1,639 2,341 coins | 15.0% | 21 | 20.1 | 1.05× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 167 | $1,576 2,251 coins | 1.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.54× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 83 | $1,438 2,054 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 33 | $1,170 1,672 coins | 5.0% | 8 | 9.3 | 0.86× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100 | $1,059 1,513 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.29× |
| [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $1,047 1,495 coins | 5.9% | 13 | 12.4 | 1.05× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $873 1,247 coins | 5.9% | 14 | 14.8 | 0.94× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 15 | $630 900 coins | 5.9% | 17 | 20.4 | 0.83× |
| [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 66 | 61.8 | 1.07× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 46 | 61.8 | 0.74× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 71 | 61.8 | 1.15× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) [D O P E](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/D%20O%20P%20E) $795 1,136 coins $12.8K 18,291 coins 16.10x 2026-11-04 18:18 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $7,455 10,650 coins 9.56x 2026-11-10 08:38 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-battle-scarred) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $6,605 9,435 coins 8.30x 2026-11-07 01:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 6.50x 2026-11-06 15:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 6.50x 2026-11-06 12:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [R3p csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/R3p%20csgoroll.com) $795 1,136 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 6.50x 2026-11-05 22:23 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 6.50x 2026-11-04 22:04 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $5,023 7,175 coins 6.44x 2026-11-10 09:23 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 5.14x 2026-11-06 15:46 UTC

[Sticker | LGB eSports (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-holo-katowice-2014) Hidden $795 1,136 coins $4,088 5,840 coins 5.14x 2026-11-06 03:24 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nightmare)

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $630 900 coins 0.81x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Kickerrrrrrrr](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Kickerrrrrrrr) $780 1,114 coins $2,177 3,110 coins 2.79x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $780 1,114 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:38 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $2,177 3,110 coins 2.79x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC

[PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 03:14 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-autotronic-minimal-wear) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $873 1,247 coins 1.12x 2026-11-11 02:48 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $780 1,114 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 01:02 UTC

[P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $780 1,114 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 00:47 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $780 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $780 | 90.91% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $795 | 90.91% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 39.7% remarkable 0.3% consumer 60.0% best hit $12.8K (16.10x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt