--- title: "Nimbus case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nimbus ($11.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.73% over 1,964 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nimbus](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nimbus A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=all) Price · $11.12 · 15.88 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $10.10 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.73% · 1,964 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 27.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.29% ±15.51 167 openings 7 days · 89.87% ±4.92 1,704 openings 30 days · 89.73% ±4.58 1,964 openings since tracking started · 89.73% ±4.58 1,964 openings 80.0% 96.3% 112.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=24h) | 167 | 96.29% ±15.5 | +0.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=7d) | 1,704 | 89.87% ±4.92 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus) | 1,964 | 89.73% ±4.58 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nimbus?window=all) | 1,964 | 89.73% ±4.58 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,964 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Holo) \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-holo-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 20,000 | $323 461 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Glock-18 \| Twilight Galaxy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-twilight-galaxy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $197 281 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-cobalt-skulls-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $174 249 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $102 145 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $72.80 104 coins | 7.2% | 17 | 19.6 | 0.87× | | [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $57.92 82.74 coins | 8.6% | 30 | 29.5 | 1.02× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $33.87 48.38 coins | 5.0% | 20 | 29.5 | 0.68× | | [Sticker \| Cloud9 (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cloud9-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 50 | $21.53 30.75 coins | 4.3% | 36 | 39.3 | 0.92× | | [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $17.72 25.31 coins | 5.3% | 69 | 58.9 | 1.17× | | [Patch \| Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) | 11.0% | $16.29 23.27 coins | 17.7% | 207 | 216.0 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $15.07 21.53 coins | 10.4% | 127 | 137.5 | 0.92× | | [Souvenir SCAR-20 \| Storm (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-scar-20-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $13.91 19.87 coins | 11.4% | 173 | 162.0 | 1.07× | | [Souvenir SG 553 \| Anodized Navy (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-anodized-navy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 83 | $10.70 15.28 coins | 1.3% | 14 | 23.6 | 0.59× | | [Five-SeveN \| Nightshade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-nightshade-factory-new) | 13.0% | $9.50 13.57 coins | 12.2% | 276 | 255.3 | 1.08× | | [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) | 15.0% | $3.94 5.63 coins | 5.9% | 327 | 294.6 | 1.11× | | [P90 \| Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $2.89 4.13 coins | 4.3% | 282 | 294.6 | 0.96× | | [SG 553 \| Wave Spray (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-wave-spray-well-worn) | 20.5% | $2.84 4.06 coins | 5.8% | 384 | 402.6 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nimbus) [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-minimal-wear) [John Pork](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/John%20Pork) $11.12 15.88 coins $2.89 4.13 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $15.07 21.53 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Patch | Sunset Wave patch · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/patch-sunset-wave) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $16.29 23.27 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-well-worn) Hidden $11.12 15.88 coins $3.94 5.63 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $11.12 | 90.89% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.14 | 90.93% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.16 | 90.89% | 17 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $11.16 | 90.90% | 17 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $11.17 | 90.89% | 17 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $11.25 | 90.88% | 17 | | 3 Nov, 07:26 UTC | $11.51 | 90.90% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.62 | 90.89% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed remarkable 11.0% classified 11.5% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 49.7% industrial 1.0% restricted 16.5% exotic 2.0% consumer 8.3% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt