--- title: "Nitrous case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nitrous ($7.57) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 20 items with odds, observed 93.29% over 4,841 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous rendered: 2026-11-11T13:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nitrous](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nitrous A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=all) Price · $7.57 · 10.81 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $6.88 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.29% · 4,841 openings, odds method Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 65.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.96% ±12.54 521 openings 7 days · 94.90% ±4.72 3,697 openings 30 days · 93.29% ±4.13 4,841 openings since tracking started · 93.29% ±4.13 4,841 openings 83.0% 96.0% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=24h) | 521 | 95.96% ±12.5 | +0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=7d) | 3,697 | 94.90% ±4.72 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous) | 4,841 | 93.29% ±4.13 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nitrous?window=all) | 4,841 | 93.29% ±4.13 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,847 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| nitr0 (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-nitr0-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 10,000 | $160 228 coins | 0.2% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $60.40 86.28 coins | 0.9% | 3 | 4.8 | 0.62× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 333 | $48.33 69.05 coins | 2.1% | 13 | 14.5 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $47.11 67.3 coins | 3.8% | 23 | 26.7 | 0.86× | | [Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-cobra-strike-well-worn) | 1 in 111 | $45.89 65.55 coins | 6.0% | 38 | 43.6 | 0.87× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $43.41 62.02 coins | 3.2% | 36 | 24.2 | 1.49× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 250 | $40.04 57.2 coins | 2.3% | 24 | 19.4 | 1.24× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $32.73 46.75 coins | 3.0% | 32 | 31.0 | 1.03× | | [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $29.14 41.63 coins | 8.5% | 101 | 96.9 | 1.04× | | [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $29.13 41.61 coins | 16.9% | 214 | 193.9 | 1.10× | | [AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-electric-hive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $27.74 39.63 coins | 3.2% | 34 | 38.8 | 0.88× | | [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $27.54 39.34 coins | 0.8% | 10 | 9.7 | 1.03× | | [CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-yellow-jacket-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $20.01 28.59 coins | 4.4% | 89 | 72.7 | 1.22× | | [PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-high-roller-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $19.36 27.66 coins | 8.4% | 141 | 145.4 | 0.97× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14 | $12.18 17.4 coins | 12.4% | 334 | 339.3 | 0.98× | | [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $11.38 16.26 coins | 8.3% | 217 | 242.4 | 0.90× | | [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $10.93 15.61 coins | 12.9% | 386 | 392.6 | 0.98× | | [AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.34 0.49 coins | 1.2% | 1,152 | 1211.8 | 0.95× | | [P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.29 0.41 coins | 0.8% | 1,008 | 969.4 | 1.04× | | [SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.22 0.31 coins | 0.6% | 990 | 969.4 | 1.02× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nitrous) [AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-grim-minimal-wear) [R1ckes](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/R1ckes) $7.57 10.81 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [USP-S | Lead Conduit (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-factory-new) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $10.93 15.61 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Glock-18 | Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $29.13 41.61 coins 3.85x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-jungle-slipstream-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC [AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-ricochet-field-tested) [✪ Majk\_Z ✪](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E2%9C%AA%20Majk_Z%20%E2%9C%AA) $7.57 10.81 coins $0.34 0.49 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-blue-laminate-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.57 10.81 coins $32.73 46.75 coins 4.32x 2026-11-11 11:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $7.57 | 90.91% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.57 | 90.89% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.46 | 90.95% | 20 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $7.46 | 90.95% | 20 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $7.46 | 90.88% | 20 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.46 | 90.91% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 0.0% classified 18.8% covert 2.7% mil spec 77.6% restricted 0.8% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt