--- title: "No Way case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "No Way ($16.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 18 items with odds, observed 108.27% over 31.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way rendered: 2026-11-11T17:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [No Way](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · No Way A case on CSGORoll (1%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=all) Price · $16.09 · 22.98 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $14.62 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 108.27% · 31.6K openings, odds method Variance · 141.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 313 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.70% ±34.87 4,455 openings 7 days · 111.40% ±14.25 26.8K openings 30 days · 108.27% ±13.14 31.6K openings since tracking started · 108.27% ±13.14 31.6K openings 65.0% 100.5% 136.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 90.90% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.13% – 121.41%, 31,556 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=24h) | 4,455 | 100.70% ±34.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=7d) | 26.8K | 111.40% ±14.3 | +2.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way) | 31.6K | 108.27% ±13.1 | +2.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/no-way?window=all) | 31.6K | 108.27% ±13.1 | +2.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $8,677 12,395 coins | 5.9% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.27× | | [★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 6,667 | $6,888 9,840 coins | 7.1% | 9 | 4.7 | 1.90× | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 4,000 | $5,023 7,175 coins | 8.6% | 7 | 7.9 | 0.89× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 4.1% | 4 | 6.3 | 0.63× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $2,667 3,810 coins | 5.5% | 8 | 9.5 | 0.84× | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,616 2,308 coins | 5.5% | 15 | 15.8 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| The Prince (Well-Worn) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 10.4% | 44 | 31.6 | 1.39× | | [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,467 2,096 coins | 7.0% | 25 | 22.1 | 1.13× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,357 1,939 coins | 9.3% | 39 | 31.6 | 1.24× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,250 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 6.3% | 36 | 25.3 | 1.43× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $952 1,360 coins | 6.5% | 39 | 31.6 | 1.24× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $923 1,318 coins | 6.3% | 29 | 31.6 | 0.92× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,000 | $878 1,254 coins | 6.0% | 48 | 31.6 | 1.52× | | [M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-imminent-danger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $827 1,182 coins | 5.7% | 39 | 31.6 | 1.24× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $767 1,095 coins | 5.2% | 30 | 31.6 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.14 0.2 coins | 0.3% | 10,425 | 10416.8 | 1.00× | | [M4A1-S \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.2% | 10,307 | 10416.8 | 0.99× | | [FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.0% | 10,458 | 10416.8 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Jigga](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jigga) $15.99 22.84 coins $8,813 12,590 coins 551.2x 2026-11-07 00:08 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $15.99 22.84 coins $8,813 12,590 coins 551.2x 2026-11-05 17:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [Rick James](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rick%20James) $16.09 22.98 coins $8,677 12,395 coins 539.4x 2026-11-10 04:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $8,677 12,395 coins 539.4x 2026-11-09 21:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 428.2x 2026-11-11 01:09 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 428.2x 2026-11-10 14:32 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 428.2x 2026-11-09 20:48 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 428.2x 2026-11-09 20:01 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $6,888 9,840 coins 428.2x 2026-11-09 03:51 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) Hidden $15.99 22.84 coins $6,591 9,415 coins 412.2x 2026-11-07 10:12 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=no-way) [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) [Zibbydibby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zibbydibby) $16.09 22.98 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:19 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-boreal-forest-field-tested) [Zibbydibby](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Zibbydibby) $16.09 22.98 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:17 UTC [AWP | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-safari-mesh-field-tested) [BENIM](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BENIM) $16.09 22.98 coins $0.14 0.2 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC [FAMAS | Cyanospatter (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-cyanospatter-field-tested) Hidden $16.09 22.98 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 17:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $16.09 | 90.91% | 18 | | 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $16.10 | 90.89% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $16.10 | 90.90% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.99 | 90.90% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.7% legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.1% epic 0.1% industrial 99.0% best hit $8,813 (551.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt