---
title: "Noir case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Noir ($17.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.08% over 853 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Noir](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Noir

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=all)

Price · $17.09 · 24.42 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $15.54 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.08% · 853 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.6% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87 openings · below min

7 days · 81.20% ±9.60 653 openings

30 days · 85.08% ±8.38 853 openings

since tracking started · 85.08% ±8.38 853 openings

41.5% 68.8% 96.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=24h) | 87 | 68.52% ±26.6 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=7d) | 653 | 81.20% ±9.60 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir) | 853 | 85.08% ±8.38 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noir?window=all) | 853 | 85.08% ±8.38 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 861 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 5,000 | $118 168 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-man-o-war-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $111 159 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 20 | $95.20 136 coins | 30.6% | 35 | 43.1 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-midnight-storm-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $70.70 101 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-black-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $32.80 46.86 coins | 1.1% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [Glock-18 \| Steel Disruption (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-steel-disruption-factory-new) | 16.0% | $30.60 43.72 coins | 31.5% | 133 | 137.8 | 0.97× |
| [Glock-18 \| Blue Fissure (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-blue-fissure-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $29.13 41.61 coins | 7.5% | 32 | 34.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-minimal-wear) | 1 in 400 | $27.83 39.76 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $21.74 31.06 coins | 1.4% | 9 | 8.6 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $21.48 30.69 coins | 4.1% | 25 | 25.8 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $18.43 26.33 coins | 1.8% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) | 17.7% | $11.45 16.36 coins | 13.0% | 160 | 152.1 | 1.05× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $11.38 16.26 coins | 4.4% | 69 | 51.7 | 1.34× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $7.55 10.78 coins | 2.4% | 34 | 43.1 | 0.79× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.69 0.99 coins | 0.9% | 196 | 172.2 | 1.14× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Scumbria (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $0.23 0.33 coins | 0.3% | 153 | 172.2 | 0.89× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=noir)

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) [dinmor](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/dinmor) $17.09 24.42 coins $0.69 0.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:03 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-scumbria-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $0.23 0.33 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $0.69 0.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $0.69 0.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Poison Dart (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-poison-dart-factory-new) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $11.45 16.36 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-battle-scarred) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $11.38 16.26 coins 0.67x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[USP-S | Royal Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-blue-field-tested) [UnfairScroll27](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/UnfairScroll27) $17.09 24.42 coins $7.55 10.78 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 10:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bunsen-burner-field-tested) Hidden $17.09 24.42 coins $0.69 0.99 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 10:52 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $17.09 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.09 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.43 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $17.31 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.31 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 5.1% industrial 5.3% mil spec 62.2% restricted 17.5% classified 10.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt