---
title: "Noise case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Noise ($30.24) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 23 items with odds, observed 86.84% over 223 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Noise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Noise

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=all)

Price · $30.24 · 43.2 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $27.49 from 23 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.84% · 223 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 56.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 18 openings · below min

7 days · 86.82% ±13.53 195 openings

30 days · 86.84% ±12.66 223 openings

since tracking started · 86.84% ±12.66 223 openings

2.0% 51.5% 101.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=24h) | 18 | 46.94% ±44.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=7d) | 195 | 86.82% ±13.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise) | 223 | 86.84% ±12.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/noise?window=all) | 223 | 86.84% ±12.7 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 223 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $401 573 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $230 328 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $209 298 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $200 285 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $112 160 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-chanticos-fire-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $109 156 coins | 28.0% | 16 | 15.7 | 1.02× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $109 155 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| CAUTION! (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-caution-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $101 144 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $81.20 116 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $50.61 72.3 coins | 2.8% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.79× |
| [AWP \| Sun in Leo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-sun-in-leo-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 4.5% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.90× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Nitro (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-nitro-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $49.23 70.33 coins | 5.4% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× |
| [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $43.88 62.69 coins | 4.2% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 10.0% | $37.46 53.52 coins | 13.6% | 18 | 22.3 | 0.81× |
| [P250 \| Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nuclear-threat-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $36.81 52.59 coins | 6.7% | 14 | 11.2 | 1.26× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 10.0% | $34.46 49.23 coins | 12.5% | 15 | 22.3 | 0.67× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $34.31 49.01 coins | 2.5% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Red DDPAT (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-red-ddpat-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $28.06 40.09 coins | 1.0% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.79× |
| [Galil AR \| Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) | 10.0% | $23.59 33.7 coins | 8.6% | 23 | 22.3 | 1.03× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) | 10.0% | $10.60 15.14 coins | 3.9% | 15 | 22.3 | 0.67× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) | 10.0% | $4.69 6.7 coins | 1.7% | 29 | 22.3 | 1.30× |
| [MAC-10 \| Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) | 10.0% | $4.14 5.92 coins | 1.5% | 30 | 22.3 | 1.35× |
| [P250 \| Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) | 15.0% | $2.09 2.99 coins | 1.1% | 35 | 33.4 | 1.05× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=noise)

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $23.59 33.7 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Galil AR | Cerberus (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-cerberus-field-tested) [Cousin of po](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Cousin%20of%20po) $30.24 43.2 coins $23.59 33.7 coins 0.78x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $10.60 15.14 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-retrobution-factory-new) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $10.60 15.14 coins 0.35x 2026-11-11 10:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-tatter-field-tested) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $4.14 5.92 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Panther (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-panther-factory-new) Hidden $30.24 43.2 coins $4.69 6.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

[P250 | Hive (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-hive-field-tested) [Tiny Tim.CsgoRoll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Tiny%20Tim.CsgoRoll.com) $30.24 43.2 coins $2.09 2.99 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 06:10 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $30.24 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $30.22 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.55 | 90.92% | 23 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $29.45 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $29.43 | 90.91% | 23 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.43 | 90.90% | 23 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 2.2% covert 17.2% classified 4.1% industrial 2.5% mil spec 38.0% Mythical 5.0% restricted 31.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt