---
title: "NULL case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "NULL ($65.07) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 25 items with odds, observed 96.08% over 2,443 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [NULL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · NULL

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=all)

Price · $65.07 · 92.96 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $59.16 from 25 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 96.08% · 2,443 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 27 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71 openings · below min

7 days · 96.90% ±16.95 2,053 openings

30 days · 96.08% ±15.54 2,443 openings

since tracking started · 96.08% ±15.54 2,443 openings

-0.5% 67.5% 135.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=24h) | 71 | 43.45% ±91.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=7d) | 2,053 | 96.90% ±17.0 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null) | 2,443 | 96.08% ±15.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/null?window=all) | 2,443 | 96.08% ±15.5 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 25 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,443 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100,000 | $9,370 13,385 coins | 0.2% | 1 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 5.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $5,156 7,365 coins | 4.4% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Field-Tested) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-pandoras-box-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,982 4,260 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 2,000 | $2,177 3,110 coins | 1.8% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,988 2,840 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.82× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 1,111 | $1,331 1,901 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $1,194 1,706 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 286 | $1,146 1,637 coins | 6.8% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.29× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-well-worn) | 1 in 667 | $1,067 1,524 coins | 2.7% | 5 | 3.7 | 1.36× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 400 | $816 1,165 coins | 3.4% | 5 | 6.1 | 0.82× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 170 | $536 766 coins | 5.3% | 11 | 14.4 | 0.76× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 154 | $444 634 coins | 4.9% | 17 | 15.9 | 1.07× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $416 594 coins | 8.8% | 34 | 30.5 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 74 | $414 591 coins | 9.4% | 28 | 33.0 | 0.85× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $386 551 coins | 9.8% | 36 | 36.6 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $317 453 coins | 4.3% | 14 | 19.5 | 0.72× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $287 410 coins | 5.6% | 23 | 28.1 | 0.82× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 182 | $277 396 coins | 2.6% | 19 | 13.4 | 1.41× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $274 392 coins | 4.6% | 24 | 24.4 | 0.98× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 100 | $265 379 coins | 4.5% | 26 | 24.4 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $144 205 coins | 5.3% | 52 | 53.7 | 0.97× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $79.10 113 coins | 2.4% | 37 | 44.0 | 0.84× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 40.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 988 | 977.2 | 1.01× |
| [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 1,105 | 1099.4 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-minimal-wear) [LarenPerec](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LarenPerec) $65.96 94.23 coins $9,720 13,885 coins 147.4x 2026-11-06 19:08 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $65.96 94.23 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 102.0x 2026-11-07 18:10 UTC

[AWP | Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) Hidden $65.96 94.23 coins $6,727 9,610 coins 102.0x 2026-11-07 04:06 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) [Dizyy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dizyy) $65.96 94.23 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 78.37x 2026-11-07 04:28 UTC

[M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.96 94.23 coins $5,170 7,385 coins 78.37x 2026-11-05 23:06 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Traceur](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Traceur) $65.96 94.23 coins $2,040 2,915 coins 30.93x 2026-11-03 17:02 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [Falken](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Falken) $65.96 94.23 coins $1,350 1,928 coins 20.46x 2026-11-05 10:03 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $65.96 94.23 coins $1,257 1,795 coins 19.05x 2026-11-06 20:23 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) [bramboy23](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/bramboy23) $65.07 92.96 coins $1,146 1,637 coins 17.61x 2026-11-09 15:11 UTC

[★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins $1,146 1,637 coins 17.61x 2026-11-09 11:22 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=null)

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:35 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins $144 205 coins 2.21x 2026-11-11 09:34 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) [Hirschbaer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Hirschbaer) $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

[MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-battle-scarred) Hidden $65.07 92.96 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 09:30 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $65.07 | 90.91% | 25 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $65.16 | 90.91% | 25 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $65.96 | 90.91% | 25 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 7.7% contraband 0.1% legendary 0.6% extraordinary 1.6% classified 1.4% restricted 1.5% epic 2.2% consumer 85.0% best hit $9,720 (147.4x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt