---
title: "Nyctophobia case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Nyctophobia ($47.47) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 24 items with odds, observed 88.45% over 2,208 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:43Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Nyctophobia](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Nyctophobia

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=all)

Price · $47.47 · 67.81 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $43.15 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 88.45% · 2,208 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 24.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 81.41% ±17.67 178 openings

7 days · 88.47% ±5.47 1,840 openings

30 days · 88.45% ±4.99 2,208 openings

since tracking started · 88.45% ±4.99 2,208 openings

63.0% 81.3% 99.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=24h) | 178 | 81.41% ±17.7 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=7d) | 1,840 | 88.47% ±5.47 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia) | 2,208 | 88.45% ±4.99 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/nyctophobia?window=all) | 2,208 | 88.45% ±4.99 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,208 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,177 1,682 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $634 905 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · legendary · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 20,000 | $533 762 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-survival-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $475 679 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 6,667 | $428 611 coins | 0.1% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Sunset Storm 壱 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-sunset-storm-minimal-wear-2) | 1 in 1,333 | $421 602 coins | 0.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $370 529 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 3.3 | 0.00× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Spruce DDPAT (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-spruce-ddpat-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $334 477 coins | 1.9% | 4 | 5.5 | 0.72× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 222 | $218 311 coins | 2.3% | 5 | 9.9 | 0.50× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-red-laminate-minimal-wear) | 1 in 154 | $202 288 coins | 3.0% | 16 | 14.4 | 1.11× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $194 277 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $163 233 coins | 5.7% | 30 | 33.1 | 0.91× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $100 143 coins | 1.9% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× |
| [Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 17 | $100 143 coins | 13.9% | 139 | 132.5 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-dual-berettas-twin-turbo-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $82.60 118 coins | 5.7% | 75 | 66.2 | 1.13× |
| [AK-47 \| First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) | 11.0% | $78.40 112 coins | 20.0% | 223 | 242.9 | 0.92× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Lt. Commander (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-lt-commander-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $76.30 109 coins | 2.1% | 33 | 26.5 | 1.25× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $75.60 108 coins | 8.8% | 112 | 110.4 | 1.01× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 13 | $67.54 96.49 coins | 12.5% | 168 | 176.6 | 0.95× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 11.7% | $64.58 92.25 coins | 17.6% | 271 | 259.0 | 1.05× |
| [Sticker \| Say Cheese (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-say-cheese-holo) | 12.5% | $0.35 0.5 coins | 0.1% | 285 | 276.0 | 1.03× |
| [Sticker \| Gutted sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gutted) | 12.5% | $0.28 0.4 coins | 0.1% | 257 | 276.0 | 0.93× |
| [Charm \| Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) | 12.5% | $0.15 0.21 coins | 0.0% | 276 | 276.0 | 1.00× |
| [Charm \| Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) | 12.5% | $0.12 0.17 coins | 0.0% | 294 | 276.0 | 1.07× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.33 67.61 coins $1,066 1,523 coins 22.53x 2026-11-08 04:06 UTC

[★ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · legendary · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [xSazukiii](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/xSazukiii) $47.33 67.61 coins $550 785 coins 11.61x 2026-11-04 16:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=nyctophobia)

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:38 UTC

[Glock-18 | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) weapon · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $67.54 96.49 coins 1.42x 2026-11-11 15:36 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:35 UTC

[AK-47 | First Class (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-first-class-well-worn) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $78.40 112 coins 1.65x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Sticker | Say Cheese (Holo) sticker · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-say-cheese-holo) [ᗪᗩᑎY G](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%97%AA%E1%97%A9%E1%91%8EY%20G) $47.47 67.81 coins $0.35 0.5 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:21 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:08 UTC

[Charm | Pinch O' Salt charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-pinch-o-salt) [ᗪᗩᑎY G](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%97%AA%E1%97%A9%E1%91%8EY%20G) $47.47 67.81 coins $0.12 0.17 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:05 UTC

[Charm | Hot Sauce charm · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-hot-sauce) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $0.15 0.21 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $75.60 108 coins 1.59x 2026-11-11 15:02 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) Hidden $47.47 67.81 coins $64.58 92.25 coins 1.36x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $47.47 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 02:02 UTC | $47.47 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $47.47 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.48 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.22 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $47.33 | 90.91% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 7.5% covert 27.6% legendary 0.0% restricted 11.2% classified 3.6% common 12.5% high 12.5% uncommon 25.0% best hit $1,066 (22.53x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt