---
title: "Oblivion case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Oblivion ($22.97) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 94.58% over 708 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Oblivion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Oblivion

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=all)

Price · $22.97 · 32.82 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $20.89 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.58% · 708 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.8% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 79.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 98.23% ±22.51 128 openings

7 days · 95.14% ±9.76 692 openings

30 days · 94.58% ±9.65 708 openings

since tracking started · 94.58% ±9.65 708 openings

75.0% 98.3% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=24h) | 128 | 98.23% ±22.5 | +0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=7d) | 692 | 95.14% ±9.76 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion) | 708 | 94.58% ±9.65 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oblivion?window=all) | 708 | 94.58% ±9.65 | +0.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 708 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $631 902 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $386 551 coins | 0.9% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $118 168 coins | 3.9% | 8 | 5.0 | 1.61× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $114 163 coins | 2.7% | 9 | 3.5 | 2.54× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $113 161 coins | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 71 | $109 155 coins | 7.3% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 91 | $98.70 141 coins | 5.2% | 9 | 7.8 | 1.16× |
| [P2000 \| Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $77.70 111 coins | 29.8% | 48 | 56.6 | 0.85× |
| [Glock-18 \| Pink DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-pink-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $69.05 98.65 coins | 8.3% | 16 | 17.7 | 0.90× |
| [Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-nuclear-threat-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $41.13 58.75 coins | 11.8% | 39 | 42.5 | 0.92× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $17.86 25.51 coins | 5.1% | 37 | 42.5 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $15.15 21.64 coins | 6.5% | 68 | 63.7 | 1.07× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) | 12.0% | $12.15 17.36 coins | 7.0% | 77 | 85.0 | 0.91× |
| [MP7 \| Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) | 15.7% | $5.28 7.55 coins | 4.0% | 113 | 111.1 | 1.02× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 17.0% | $4.66 6.66 coins | 3.8% | 134 | 120.4 | 1.11× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) | 20.0% | $3.26 4.65 coins | 3.1% | 136 | 141.6 | 0.96× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=oblivion)

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $4.66 6.66 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $5.28 7.55 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) [El Gamblino 𝓜𝓐𝓕𝓘𝓐](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/El%20Gamblino%20%F0%9D%93%9C%F0%9D%93%90%F0%9D%93%95%F0%9D%93%98%F0%9D%93%90) $22.97 32.82 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $12.15 17.36 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-factory-new) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $12.15 17.36 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[P2000 | Fire Elemental (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-fire-elemental-field-tested) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $77.70 111 coins 3.38x 2026-11-11 12:39 UTC

[MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $4.66 6.66 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-nemesis-field-tested) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $5.28 7.55 coins 0.23x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $3.26 4.65 coins 0.14x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-battle-scarred) Hidden $22.97 32.82 coins $15.15 21.64 coins 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $22.97 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $22.92 | 90.92% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.09 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $23.18 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $23.14 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.11 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 10.3% restricted 46.5% extraordinary 0.1% classified 17.1% pink 9.0% Legendary 17.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt