---
title: "Obscura case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Obscura ($10.00) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 90.34% over 2,674 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Obscura](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Obscura

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=all)

Price · $10.00 · 14.28 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $9.09 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.34% · 2,674 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 69.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.07% ±16.60 253 openings

7 days · 90.59% ±5.51 2,279 openings

30 days · 90.34% ±5.09 2,674 openings

since tracking started · 90.34% ±5.09 2,674 openings

78.0% 95.3% 112.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=24h) | 253 | 95.07% ±16.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=7d) | 2,279 | 90.59% ±5.51 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura) | 2,674 | 90.34% ±5.09 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obscura?window=all) | 2,674 | 90.34% ±5.09 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,680 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $127 182 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $125 178 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AWP \| BOOM (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $94.50 135 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.49× |
| [M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-radiation-hazard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $79.10 113 coins | 4.4% | 18 | 13.4 | 1.34× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Night (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-night-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $72.80 104 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 1.3 | 2.99× |
| [Glock-18 \| Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-dragon-tattoo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 143 | $72.80 104 coins | 5.6% | 15 | 18.8 | 0.80× |
| [★ Moto Gloves \| 3rd Commando Company (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-3rd-commando-company-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $35.56 50.8 coins | 4.3% | 26 | 29.5 | 0.88× |
| [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) | 12.0% | $29.41 42.02 coins | 38.8% | 313 | 321.6 | 0.97× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-point-disarray-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $28.64 40.91 coins | 7.9% | 59 | 67.0 | 0.88× |
| [Galil AR \| Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $21.87 31.24 coins | 3.4% | 30 | 37.5 | 0.80× |
| [MAC-10 \| Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $21.55 30.79 coins | 14.2% | 168 | 160.8 | 1.04× |
| [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $12.52 17.89 coins | 8.3% | 159 | 160.8 | 0.99× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $6.27 8.96 coins | 6.2% | 262 | 241.2 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Taste Buddy (Holo) sticker · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-taste-buddy-holo) | 1 in 13 | $2.77 3.95 coins | 2.4% | 229 | 214.4 | 1.07× |
| [Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-koi-minimal-wear) | 15.7% | $1.64 2.34 coins | 2.8% | 422 | 420.5 | 1.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.20 0.28 coins | 0.4% | 528 | 536.0 | 0.99× |
| [P90 \| Teardown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-well-worn) | 17.0% | $0.10 0.15 coins | 0.2% | 445 | 455.6 | 0.98× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=obscura)

[P90 | Teardown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 14.29 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 14.29 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-well-worn) Hidden $10.00 14.29 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[MAC-10 | Amber Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-amber-fade-factory-new) [GHOST](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/GHOST) $10.00 14.29 coins $21.55 30.79 coins 2.15x 2026-11-11 19:19 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-well-worn) [BiO-HaZarD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BiO-HaZarD) $10.00 14.28 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 14.28 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

[Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-rainbow-spoon-factory-new) Hidden $10.00 14.28 coins $21.87 31.24 coins 2.19x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

[MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $10.00 14.28 coins $29.41 42.02 coins 2.94x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC

[P90 | Teardown (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-teardown-well-worn) [m1chi](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m1chi) $10.00 14.28 coins $0.10 0.15 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-safari-mesh-minimal-wear) Hidden $10.00 14.28 coins $0.20 0.28 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 18:59 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $10.00 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $10.03 | 90.88% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $10.03 | 90.88% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $10.14 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $10.14 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $10.10 | 90.94% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $10.11 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.11 | 90.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed epic 0.0% covert 12.1% classified 17.5% mil spec 23.5% restricted 16.4% extraordinary 1.1% rare 1.4% #8847ff 8.0% industrial 20.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt