--- title: "Observer case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Observer ($451.22) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 344.12% over 16 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Observer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Observer A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=all) Price · $451.22 · 645 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $410.20 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 344.12% · 16 openings, odds method Variance · 8.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 16 openings · below min since tracking started · 16 openings · below min 90.5% 351.0% 611.5% **Small sample.** 16 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=7d) | 12 | 448.45% ±162.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer) | 16 | 344.12% ±140.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/observer?window=all) | 16 | 344.12% ±140.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 16 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 200 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 21.4% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) | 1 in 50 | $3,164 4,520 coins | 15.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $911 1,302 coins | 6.7% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50 | $806 1,152 coins | 3.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $805 1,150 coins | 5.9% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $643 918 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-2) | 1 in 33 | $562 803 coins | 4.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-hand-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $400 571 coins | 5.8% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $396 566 coins | 3.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $337 482 coins | 2.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $320 457 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 17 | $232 332 coins | 3.4% | 1 | 1.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) | 17.5% | $174 249 coins | 7.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.79× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 15.0% | $146 208 coins | 5.3% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 14 | $134 192 coins | 2.3% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.79× | | [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14 | $131 187 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 15.0% | $72.10 103 coins | 2.6% | 2 | 2.4 | 0.83× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $453 648 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 38.79x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 648 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 6.98x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $453 648 coins $911 1,302 coins 2.01x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $453 648 coins $818 1,169 coins 1.80x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $453 648 coins $809 1,155 coins 1.78x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=observer) [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) [Diemonds csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Diemonds%20csgoroll.com) $453 648 coins $141 202 coins 0.31x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [Sticker | Reason Gaming | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-katowice-2014) Hidden $453 648 coins $3,164 4,520 coins 6.98x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-autotronic-field-tested) Hidden $453 648 coins $818 1,169 coins 1.80x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $453 648 coins $174 248 coins 0.38x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $453 648 coins $911 1,302 coins 2.01x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) Hidden $453 648 coins $141 202 coins 0.31x 2026-11-05 07:25 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) Hidden $453 648 coins $174 248 coins 0.38x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $453 648 coins $231 330 coins 0.51x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $453 648 coins $75.60 108 coins 0.17x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) [tashud](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/tashud) $453 648 coins $17.6K 25,125 coins 38.79x 2026-11-04 20:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $451 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $452 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $453 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.5% high 2.0% epic 3.0% covert 57.0% restricted 6.0% classified 24.5% extraordinary 7.0% best hit $17.6K (38.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt