--- title: "Obsidian case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Obsidian ($23.96) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 18 items with odds, observed 83.73% over 879 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian rendered: 2026-11-11T13:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Obsidian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Obsidian A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=all) Price · $23.96 · 34.23 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $21.78 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.73% · 879 openings, odds method Variance · 3.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 90.79% ±30.17 145 openings 7 days · 86.80% ±14.70 616 openings 30 days · 83.73% ±12.33 879 openings since tracking started · 83.73% ±12.33 879 openings 60.0% 90.8% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=24h) | 145 | 90.79% ±30.2 | −0.0σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=7d) | 616 | 86.80% ±14.7 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian) | 879 | 83.73% ±12.3 | −1.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/obsidian?window=all) | 879 | 83.73% ±12.3 | −1.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 883 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $403 576 coins | 1.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $287 410 coins | 2.6% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.70× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $268 383 coins | 1.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $262 374 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.27× | | [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $218 311 coins | 2.0% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× | | [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $179 255 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 4.4 | 0.23× | | [Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $160 229 coins | 29.4% | 27 | 35.3 | 0.76× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $141 201 coins | 3.2% | 5 | 4.4 | 1.13× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $139 198 coins | 1.3% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.13× | | [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-marble-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $139 198 coins | 6.4% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $93.80 134 coins | 8.6% | 17 | 17.7 | 0.96× | | [MAC-10 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $34.79 49.7 coins | 1.6% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× | | [Souvenir MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $26.46 37.8 coins | 12.1% | 80 | 88.3 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) | 1 in 20 | $17.67 25.25 coins | 4.1% | 52 | 44.2 | 1.18× | | [Sticker \| Opal Flick (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-opal-flick-holo) | 10.0% | $7.05 10.07 coins | 3.2% | 104 | 88.3 | 1.18× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 30.0% | $6.27 8.96 coins | 8.6% | 255 | 264.9 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) | 15.0% | $4.73 6.75 coins | 3.3% | 133 | 132.4 | 1.00× | | [UMP-45 \| Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) | 20.0% | $4.27 6.1 coins | 3.9% | 183 | 176.6 | 1.04× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=obsidian) [UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $4.27 6.1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $4.73 6.75 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $26.46 37.8 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Souvenir MP7 | Fade (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp7-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $26.46 37.8 coins 1.10x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [Sticker | Liquid Fire (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-liquid-fire-holo) [Arc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arc) $23.96 34.23 coins $17.67 25.25 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 04:20 UTC [UMP-45 | Momentum (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-momentum-field-tested) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $4.27 6.1 coins 0.18x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC [Sticker | Tornado Chaos (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tornado-chaos-foil) Hidden $23.96 34.23 coins $4.73 6.75 coins 0.20x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [Arc](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arc) $23.96 34.23 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 04:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $23.96 | 90.90% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $24.06 | 90.92% | 18 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $23.67 | 90.91% | 18 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $23.37 | 90.91% | 18 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $23.26 | 90.91% | 18 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $23.28 | 90.92% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed epic 0.1% covert 4.7% classified 34.0% rare 0.2% mil spec 1.0% restricted 10.0% remarkable 15.0% exotic 15.0% Legendary 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt