---
title: "Oceanic case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Oceanic ($29.81) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 91.01% over 3,878 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Oceanic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Oceanic

A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=all)

Price · $29.81 · 42.59 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $27.10 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.01% · 3,878 openings, odds method

Variance · 5.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 17 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 118.80% ±25.52 310 openings

7 days · 92.24% ±7.99 3,197 openings

30 days · 91.01% ±7.25 3,878 openings

since tracking started · 91.01% ±7.25 3,878 openings

83.0% 114.0% 145.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=24h) | 310 | 118.80% ±25.5 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=7d) | 3,197 | 92.24% ±7.99 | +0.3σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic) | 3,878 | 91.01% ±7.25 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oceanic?window=all) | 3,878 | 91.01% ±7.25 | +0.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,879 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 100,000 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 0.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $839 1,199 coins | 3.1% | 4 | 3.9 | 1.03× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 20,000 | $816 1,166 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $474 677 coins | 0.9% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $420 600 coins | 4.6% | 13 | 11.6 | 1.12× |
| [Glock-18 \| Synth Leaf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-synth-leaf-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $293 418 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $274 392 coins | 5.1% | 25 | 19.4 | 1.29× |
| [Souvenir M4A4 \| Tornado (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-tornado-factory-new) | 1 in 38 | $260 372 coins | 25.0% | 103 | 100.9 | 1.02× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 71 | $158 226 coins | 8.2% | 53 | 54.3 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir USP-S \| Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $149 213 coins | 3.9% | 24 | 27.2 | 0.88× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-navaja-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 100 | $136 194 coins | 5.0% | 43 | 38.8 | 1.11× |
| [Sticker \| shroud (Foil) \| Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shroud-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) | 1 in 29 | $120 171 coins | 15.0% | 132 | 131.9 | 1.00× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $81.90 117 coins | 12.2% | 154 | 156.9 | 0.98× |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $69.57 99.39 coins | 9.0% | 130 | 135.8 | 0.96× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-bright-water-factory-new) | 1 in 45 | $62.86 89.8 coins | 5.1% | 80 | 85.3 | 0.94× |
| [MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) | 80.0% | $0.21 0.3 coins | 0.6% | 3,112 | 3103.2 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.72 42.45 coins $858 1,225 coins 28.86x 2026-11-05 23:05 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.72 42.45 coins $858 1,225 coins 28.86x 2026-11-05 21:38 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.72 42.45 coins $858 1,225 coins 28.86x 2026-11-05 19:30 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) [User#878](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/User%23878) $29.72 42.45 coins $858 1,225 coins 28.86x 2026-11-05 19:20 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $29.72 42.45 coins $858 1,225 coins 28.86x 2026-11-03 23:58 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=oceanic)

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:55 UTC

[Sticker | shroud (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shroud-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) [Rusty Cake](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Rusty%20Cake) $29.81 42.59 coins $120 171 coins 4.02x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Souvenir M4A4 | Tornado (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a4-tornado-factory-new) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $260 372 coins 8.73x 2026-11-11 13:49 UTC

[Souvenir USP-S | Royal Blue (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-usp-s-royal-blue-factory-new) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $149 213 coins 5.00x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) [Jarza](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Jarza) $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:46 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:44 UTC

[MAC-10 | Oceanic (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-oceanic-field-tested) Hidden $29.81 42.59 coins $0.21 0.3 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

[Sticker | shroud (Foil) | Cluj-Napoca 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-shroud-foil-cluj-napoca-2015) [Fuldasgamer](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fuldasgamer) $29.81 42.59 coins $120 171 coins 4.02x 2026-11-11 13:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $29.81 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $29.83 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $29.67 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $29.72 | 90.92% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 8.1% classified 1.5% restricted 0.2% industrial 6.8% exotic 3.4% mil spec 80.0% best hit $858 (28.86x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt