---
title: "Octave case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Octave ($26.69) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 16 items with odds, observed 85.21% over 504 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:00Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Octave](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Octave

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=all)

Price · $26.69 · 38.13 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $24.26 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.21% · 504 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 29.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 50.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 59 openings · below min

7 days · 85.19% ±11.23 380 openings

30 days · 85.21% ±9.77 504 openings

since tracking started · 85.21% ±9.77 504 openings

47.5% 76.5% 105.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=24h) | 59 | 76.31% ±28.3 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=7d) | 380 | 85.19% ±11.2 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave) | 504 | 85.21% ±9.77 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/octave?window=all) | 504 | 85.21% ±9.77 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 504 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ StatTrak™ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nomad-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,159 1,656 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,333 | $255 364 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Snow Leopard (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-snow-leopard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $193 275 coins | 0.5% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [MP7 \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-minimal-wear) | 1 in 111 | $146 209 coins | 5.4% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.44× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-mecha-industries-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $91.70 131 coins | 15.1% | 16 | 20.2 | 0.79× |
| [P2000 \| Silver (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-silver-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $72.10 103 coins | 5.9% | 7 | 10.1 | 0.69× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-black-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $45.82 65.45 coins | 11.3% | 28 | 30.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $41.85 59.78 coins | 10.3% | 28 | 30.2 | 0.93× |
| [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $39.15 55.93 coins | 16.1% | 55 | 50.4 | 1.09× |
| [StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-usp-s-caiman-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $38.40 54.86 coins | 9.5% | 31 | 30.2 | 1.03× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) | 10.0% | $35.76 51.09 coins | 14.7% | 56 | 50.4 | 1.11× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $33.22 47.45 coins | 6.8% | 32 | 25.2 | 1.27× |
| [Sticker \| Snowfall (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snowfall-glitter) | 12.5% | $2.69 3.84 coins | 1.4% | 69 | 63.0 | 1.10× |
| [Sticker \| Black Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-black-jaggyfish) | 12.5% | $1.41 2.01 coins | 0.7% | 52 | 63.0 | 0.83× |
| [StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Black Tie (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-xm1014-black-tie-field-tested) | 12.5% | $1.27 1.82 coins | 0.7% | 64 | 63.0 | 1.02× |
| [Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-whiteout-battle-scarred) | 12.5% | $1.13 1.61 coins | 0.6% | 64 | 63.0 | 1.02× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=octave)

[Sticker | Snowfall (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snowfall-glitter) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $2.69 3.84 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Briefing (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-briefing-factory-new) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $41.85 59.78 coins 1.57x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $35.76 51.09 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $39.15 55.93 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $35.76 51.09 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) [Arcs](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Arcs) $26.69 38.13 coins $39.15 55.93 coins 1.47x 2026-11-11 05:35 UTC

[Sticker | Snowfall (Glitter) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snowfall-glitter) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $2.69 3.84 coins 0.10x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[Sticker | Black Jaggyfish sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-black-jaggyfish) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $1.41 2.01 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-redline-battle-scarred) Hidden $26.69 38.13 coins $35.76 51.09 coins 1.34x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

[USP-S | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) [DoritosAndDew](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DoritosAndDew) $26.69 38.13 coins $33.22 47.45 coins 1.24x 2026-11-11 01:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.69 | 90.90% | 16 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $26.53 | 90.91% | 16 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.63 | 90.90% | 16 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% extraordinary 0.1% mil spec 8.9% covert 10.0% classified 31.0% remarkable 12.5% high 12.5% restricted 12.5% uncommon 12.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt