---
title: "Offline case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Offline ($11.71) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 18 items with odds, observed 92.72% over 1,300 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:08Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Offline](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Offline

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=all)

Price · $11.71 · 16.73 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $10.64 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 92.72% · 1,300 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 30.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 95.34% ±12.18 152 openings

7 days · 93.67% ±4.44 1,118 openings

30 days · 92.72% ±4.11 1,300 openings

since tracking started · 92.72% ±4.11 1,300 openings

82.5% 95.3% 108.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=24h) | 152 | 95.34% ±12.2 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=7d) | 1,118 | 93.67% ±4.44 | +1.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline) | 1,300 | 92.72% ±4.11 | +0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/offline?window=all) | 1,300 | 92.72% ±4.11 | +0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,300 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [MP9 \| Stained Glass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $132 189 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $81.20 116 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [XM1014 \| Frost Borre (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-frost-borre-well-worn) | 1 in 1,667 | $70.70 101 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Souvenir FAMAS \| Cyanospatter (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-famas-cyanospatter-factory-new) | 1 in 1,111 | $69.57 99.39 coins | 0.6% | 6 | 1.2 | 5.13× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-night-field-tested) | 1 in 286 | $67.53 96.47 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [★ Kukri Knife \| Blue Steel (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/kukri-knife-blue-steel-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $61.26 87.52 coins | 2.9% | 5 | 6.5 | 0.77× |
| [Sticker \| Team Liquid (Holo) \| Boston 2018 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-liquid-holo-boston-2018) | 1 in 200 | $54.86 78.37 coins | 2.6% | 13 | 6.5 | 2.00× |
| [Sticker \| North (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-north-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 133 | $43.64 62.35 coins | 3.1% | 22 | 9.8 | 2.26× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-urban-masked-field-tested) | 1 in 51 | $41.38 59.11 coins | 7.7% | 13 | 25.6 | 0.51× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $18.24 26.06 coins | 9.9% | 83 | 74.8 | 1.11× |
| [P250 \| Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $11.44 16.34 coins | 6.4% | 86 | 78.0 | 1.10× |
| [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $10.91 15.59 coins | 7.2% | 134 | 91.0 | 1.47× |
| [StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-galil-ar-stone-cold-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $9.95 14.22 coins | 7.0% | 121 | 97.5 | 1.24× |
| [Sticker \| Movistar Riders (Holo) \| Stockholm 2021 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-movistar-riders-holo-stockholm-2021) | 1 in 11 | $9.72 13.88 coins | 8.7% | 88 | 123.5 | 0.71× |
| [Sticker \| rallen (Foil) \| Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rallen-foil-cologne-2015) | 11.5% | $9.58 13.68 coins | 10.3% | 123 | 149.5 | 0.82× |
| [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $8.44 12.05 coins | 11.9% | 184 | 195.0 | 0.94× |
| [MP7 \| Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) | 16.0% | $7.30 10.43 coins | 11.0% | 207 | 208.0 | 1.00× |
| [MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) | 17.5% | $4.84 6.91 coins | 8.0% | 215 | 227.5 | 0.95× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=offline)

[Sticker | rallen (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rallen-foil-cologne-2015) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $9.58 13.68 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[P250 | Mint Kimono (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-mint-kimono-factory-new) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $11.44 16.34 coins 0.98x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MP7 | Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $11.71 16.73 coins $10.91 15.59 coins 0.93x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Sticker | rallen (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rallen-foil-cologne-2015) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $9.58 13.68 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MP7 | Asterion (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-asterion-factory-new) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $7.30 10.43 coins 0.62x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Glock-18 | AXIA (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-well-worn) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $18.24 26.06 coins 1.56x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[Sticker | rallen (Foil) | Cologne 2015 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rallen-foil-cologne-2015) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $11.71 16.73 coins $9.58 13.68 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC

[MAG-7 | Hard Water (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-hard-water-factory-new) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $4.84 6.91 coins 0.41x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

[StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) Hidden $11.71 16.73 coins $8.44 12.05 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $11.71 | 90.89% | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $11.62 | 90.93% | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $11.62 | 90.94% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 22.5% extraordinary 0.0% mil spec 24.6% industrial 0.1% covert 2.8% remarkable 10.8% rare 5.8% consumer 22.0% exotic 11.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt