--- title: "Olympian case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Olympian ($155.28) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 95.56% over 188 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian rendered: 2026-11-11T15:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Olympian](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Olympian A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=all) Price · $155.28 · 222 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $141.17 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 95.56% · 188 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 22.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 74 openings · below min 30 days · 95.56% ±15.94 188 openings since tracking started · 95.56% ±15.94 188 openings 50.5% 81.3% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=7d) | 74 | 76.73% ±25.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian) | 188 | 95.56% ±15.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/olympian?window=all) | 188 | 95.56% ±15.9 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 188 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| The Prince (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,809 2,585 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AWP \| Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,818 | $1,697 2,424 coins | 0.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,857 | $1,616 2,308 coins | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $941 1,344 coins | 5.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.71× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 400 | $872 1,246 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $745 1,064 coins | 10.6% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.33× | | [AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $634 905 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.06× | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $557 795 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Night (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-night-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $465 664 coins | 3.3% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.53× | | [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $292 417 coins | 10.3% | 13 | 9.4 | 1.38× | | [G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-chronos-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $266 380 coins | 20.5% | 21 | 20.5 | 1.02× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $181 258 coins | 3.8% | 8 | 5.6 | 1.42× | | [★ Bayonet \| Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $167 239 coins | 7.1% | 14 | 11.3 | 1.24× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 17 | $146 208 coins | 6.2% | 10 | 11.3 | 0.89× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $97.30 139 coins | 6.2% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $72.10 103 coins | 4.1% | 20 | 15.0 | 1.33× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Turtle (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $52.24 74.63 coins | 3.3% | 20 | 16.9 | 1.18× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $49.33 70.47 coins | 3.1% | 13 | 16.9 | 0.77× | | [Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-tec-9-toxic-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $39.07 55.82 coins | 2.5% | 12 | 16.9 | 0.71× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $21.06 30.09 coins | 1.3% | 16 | 16.9 | 0.95× | | [FAMAS \| Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $15.62 22.31 coins | 1.1% | 14 | 18.8 | 0.74× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-slaughter-minimal-wear) [Ridwan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ridwan) $157 225 coins $944 1,348 coins 6.00x 2026-11-08 03:48 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $155 222 coins $745 1,064 coins 4.80x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 225 coins $732 1,046 coins 4.66x 2026-11-03 05:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $157 225 coins $732 1,046 coins 4.66x 2026-11-03 05:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 225 coins $732 1,046 coins 4.66x 2026-11-03 05:28 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) Hidden $157 225 coins $732 1,046 coins 4.66x 2026-11-03 05:26 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $157 225 coins $641 916 coins 4.08x 2026-11-03 05:30 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [Bismillah Alrahim Alraham](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Bismillah%20Alrahim%20Alraham) $157 225 coins $641 916 coins 4.08x 2026-11-03 05:30 UTC [AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $157 225 coins $641 916 coins 4.08x 2026-11-03 05:28 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $157 225 coins $557 795 coins 3.54x 2026-11-06 17:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=olympian) [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $155 222 coins $97.30 139 coins 0.63x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $155 222 coins $97.30 139 coins 0.63x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $155 222 coins $292 417 coins 1.88x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-superconductor-battle-scarred) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $155 222 coins $745 1,064 coins 4.80x 2026-11-09 22:00 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-well-worn) Hidden $155 222 coins $52.24 74.63 coins 0.34x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) Hidden $155 222 coins $167 239 coins 1.08x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Turtle (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-turtle-well-worn) Hidden $155 222 coins $52.24 74.63 coins 0.34x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [FAMAS | Afterimage (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-afterimage-minimal-wear) [Nxxh](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Nxxh) $155 222 coins $15.62 22.31 coins 0.10x 2026-11-09 21:50 UTC [★ Bayonet | Urban Masked (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-urban-masked-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 223 coins $167 239 coins 1.07x 2026-11-08 17:27 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $156 223 coins $97.30 139 coins 0.62x 2026-11-08 17:27 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $155 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $156 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $157 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 36.1% extraordinary 20.0% classified 24.0% restricted 10.9% mil spec 9.0% best hit $944 (6.00x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt