--- title: "Open Season case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Open Season ($91.01) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 78.24% over 29 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season rendered: 2026-11-11T19:56Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Open Season](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Open Season A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=all) Price · $91.01 · 130 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $82.73 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 78.24% · 29 openings, odds method Variance · 3.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.4% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 79.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 29 openings · below min 30 days · 29 openings · below min since tracking started · 29 openings · below min 7.5% 76.3% 145.0% **Small sample.** 29 openings and 5.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=24h) | 25 | 76.18% ±68.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=7d) | 29 | 78.24% ±63.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season) | 29 | 78.24% ±63.5 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/open-season?window=all) | 29 | 78.24% ±63.5 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $1,309 1,870 coins | 15.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $1,299 1,855 coins | 4.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $427 610 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $282 403 coins | 8.5% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $205 293 coins | 9.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 12.0% | $98.70 141 coins | 14.3% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.72× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 13 | $86.80 124 coins | 8.4% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.29× | | [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-battle-scarred) | 25.0% | $75.60 108 coins | 22.8% | 5 | 7.3 | 0.69× | | [P250 \| Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) | 20.0% | $38.54 55.06 coins | 9.3% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.03× | | [SCAR-20 \| Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) | 26.6% | $6.27 8.96 coins | 2.0% | 7 | 7.7 | 0.91× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=open-season) [P250 | Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $38.54 55.06 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $86.80 124 coins 0.95x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $91.01 130 coins $282 403 coins 3.10x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $98.70 141 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-unhinged-factory-new) [ONE\_TAP Jimmozzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/ONE_TAP%20Jimmozzz) $91.01 130 coins $282 403 coins 3.10x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [P250 | Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $91.01 130 coins $38.54 55.06 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) [gifu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/gifu) $91.01 130 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [P250 | Splash (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-factory-new) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $38.54 55.06 coins 0.42x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $98.70 141 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 17:08 UTC [SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-cardiac-field-tested) Hidden $91.01 130 coins $6.27 8.96 coins 0.07x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $91.01 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $91.10 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $92.21 | 90.91% | 11 | | 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $92.46 | 90.91% | 11 | | 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $92.36 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $92.38 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 46.1% legendary 3.3% extraordinary 4.0% restricted 20.0% classified 26.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt