---
title: "Oracle case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Oracle ($104.16) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 109.30% over 67 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle
rendered: 2026-11-11T18:40Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Oracle](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Oracle

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=all)

Price · $104.16 · 149 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $94.69 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 109.30% · 67 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 23.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 4 openings · below min

7 days · 67 openings · below min

30 days · 67 openings · below min

since tracking started · 67 openings · below min

-0.5% 79.0% 158.5%

**Small sample.** 67 openings and 15.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=24h) | 4 | 63.63% ±94.4 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=7d) | 67 | 109.30% ±23.5 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle) | 67 | 109.30% ±23.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oracle?window=all) | 67 | 109.30% ±23.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 67 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,142 1,631 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) | 1 in 400 | $1,100 1,572 coins | 2.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 2,857 | $751 1,073 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,818 | $571 815 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $406 580 coins | 21.4% | 4 | 3.4 | 1.19× |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 133 | $304 434 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $200 286 coins | 3.2% | 0 | 1.0 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 200 | $183 261 coins | 1.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $177 253 coins | 3.7% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.24× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $152 217 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-3) | 1 in 33 | $115 164 coins | 3.6% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× |
| [M4A4 \| X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $113 161 coins | 10.7% | 5 | 6.0 | 0.83× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $102 146 coins | 9.7% | 2 | 6.0 | 0.33× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-blue-steel-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $88.90 127 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) | 10.0% | $84.00 120 coins | 8.9% | 7 | 6.7 | 1.04× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $67.59 96.55 coins | 5.7% | 6 | 5.4 | 1.12× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $65.46 93.51 coins | 6.2% | 10 | 6.0 | 1.66× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $62.39 89.13 coins | 4.0% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.24× |
| [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $51.07 72.95 coins | 4.9% | 8 | 6.0 | 1.33× |
| [AK-47 \| Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) | 10.9% | $19.36 27.66 coins | 2.2% | 6 | 7.3 | 0.82× |
| [M4A1-S \| Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $15.83 22.62 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.66× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 10.56x 2026-11-09 00:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=oracle)

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 0.63x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $19.36 27.66 coins 0.19x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Crimson Blossom (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-crimson-blossom-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $67.59 96.55 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-x-ray-factory-new) [BeastafiedBeast](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/BeastafiedBeast) $104 149 coins $113 161 coins 1.08x 2026-11-11 16:53 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 0.63x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

[M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-moss-quartz-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $15.83 22.62 coins 0.15x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

[AK-47 | Cartel (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-cartel-minimal-wear) Hidden $104 149 coins $19.36 27.66 coins 0.19x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heirloom-factory-new) Hidden $104 149 coins $84.00 120 coins 0.81x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-field-tested) Hidden $104 149 coins $65.46 93.51 coins 0.63x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Autotronic (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-autotronic-factory-new) [Anh Trithong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Anh%20Trithong) $104 149 coins $177 253 coins 1.70x 2026-11-10 01:05 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $104 | 90.91% | 21 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $105 | 90.91% | 21 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed restricted 19.0% extraordinary 5.3% covert 37.8% epic 1.0% mil spec 8.0% classified 19.9% industrial 9.0% best hit $1,100 (10.56x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt