--- title: "Orbital Cannon case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Orbital Cannon ($2,948.27) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 10 items with odds, observed 55.42% over 15 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon rendered: 2026-11-11T18:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Orbital Cannon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Orbital Cannon A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=all) Price · $2,948.27 · 4,212 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $2,680.25 from 10 items Observed RTP, 30d · 55.42% · 15 openings, odds method Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 2 openings · below min 7 days · 14 openings · below min 30 days · 15 openings · below min since tracking started · 15 openings · below min -0.5% 87.8% 176.0% **Small sample.** 15 openings and 3.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=24h) | 2 | 39.31% ±135.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=7d) | 14 | 56.82% ±50.6 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon) | 15 | 55.42% ±48.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/orbital-cannon?window=all) | 15 | 55.42% ±48.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-kimono-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $12K 17,180 coins | 9.0% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $9,856 14,080 coins | 29.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 33 | $7,294 10,420 coins | 8.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 67 | $4,669 6,670 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Sticker \| Clan-Mystik (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clan-mystik-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 18 | $4,288 6,125 coins | 8.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) | 10.0% | $3,024 4,320 coins | 11.3% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 22.5% | $1,551 2,216 coins | 13.0% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 15.0% | $1,194 1,706 coins | 6.7% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× | | [M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) | 17.5% | $1,035 1,478 coins | 6.8% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.29× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 15.0% | $767 1,095 coins | 4.3% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.33× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [zombieking388](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zombieking388) $2,948 4,212 coins $7,294 10,420 coins 2.47x 2026-11-10 10:57 UTC [AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-factory-new) [Sean da Paul](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sean%20da%20Paul) $2,945 4,208 coins $2,979 4,255 coins 1.01x 2026-11-05 18:44 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,645 2,350 coins 0.56x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $1,551 2,216 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,248 1,783 coins 0.42x 2026-11-06 21:37 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $1,194 1,706 coins 0.41x 2026-11-09 15:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 0.36x 2026-11-07 19:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 0.36x 2026-11-06 18:06 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 0.36x 2026-11-05 14:05 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) ['My' Potatoooooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/'My'%20Potatoooooo) $2,945 4,208 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 0.36x 2026-11-04 02:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=orbital-cannon) [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $1,551 2,216 coins 0.53x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $767 1,095 coins 0.26x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $1,035 1,478 coins 0.35x 2026-11-10 18:06 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $767 1,095 coins 0.26x 2026-11-10 17:33 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) [FRULLKAKKA](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/FRULLKAKKA) $2,948 4,212 coins $1,035 1,478 coins 0.35x 2026-11-10 14:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [zombieking388](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/zombieking388) $2,948 4,212 coins $7,294 10,420 coins 2.47x 2026-11-10 10:57 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $2,948 4,212 coins $1,194 1,706 coins 0.41x 2026-11-09 15:38 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,645 2,350 coins 0.56x 2026-11-08 05:13 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) [Sn$k!3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Sn%24k!3) $2,945 4,208 coins $769 1,098 coins 0.26x 2026-11-08 04:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-welcome-to-the-jungle-minimal-wear) Hidden $2,945 4,208 coins $1,054 1,505 coins 0.36x 2026-11-07 19:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2,948 | 90.91% | 10 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2,945 | 90.91% | 10 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 2.0% covert 77.5% legendary 20.5% best hit $7,294 (2.47x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt