--- title: "Oriental Case case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Oriental Case ($52.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 90.99% over 43 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Oriental Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Oriental Case A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=all) Price · $52.72 · 75.31 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $47.92 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.99% · 43 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 26.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 64.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 29 openings · below min 30 days · 43 openings · below min since tracking started · 43 openings · below min 52.0% 101.8% 151.5% **Small sample.** 43 openings and 11.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=7d) | 29 | 104.35% ±46.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case) | 43 | 90.99% ±38.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oriental-case?window=all) | 43 | 90.99% ±38.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-well-worn) | 1 in 500 | $811 1,159 coins | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-factory-new) | 1 in 333 | $445 636 coins | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-akihabara-accept-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $429 613 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $277 395 coins | 5.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $207 296 coins | 13.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.55× | | [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $142 203 coins | 3.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) | 20.0% | $64.79 92.56 coins | 27.0% | 10 | 8.6 | 1.16× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) | 10.0% | $59.44 84.91 coins | 12.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $50.61 72.3 coins | 4.2% | 3 | 1.7 | 1.74× | | [Tec-9 \| Bamboo Forest (Factory New) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-bamboo-forest-factory-new) | 10.0% | $26.63 38.05 coins | 5.6% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.70× | | [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $25.12 35.88 coins | 7.9% | 7 | 6.5 | 1.09× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 15.0% | $21.74 31.06 coins | 6.8% | 3 | 6.5 | 0.47× | | [SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 20.0% | $9.00 12.85 coins | 3.8% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=oriental-case) [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $25.12 35.88 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $21.74 31.06 coins 0.41x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $25.12 35.88 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-oni-taiji-minimal-wear) [MOHAMMED](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/MOHAMMED) $52.72 75.32 coins $277 395 coins 5.24x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $52.72 75.32 coins $9.02 12.89 coins 0.17x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-factory-new) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $59.44 84.91 coins 1.13x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $64.79 92.56 coins 1.23x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-bloodsport-factory-new) [na'thanx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/na'thanx) $52.72 75.32 coins $64.79 92.56 coins 1.23x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $25.12 35.88 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 15:14 UTC [Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) Hidden $52.72 75.32 coins $25.12 35.88 coins 0.48x 2026-11-09 15:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $52.72 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $52.72 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $51.37 | 90.91% | 13 | | 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $51.48 | 90.90% | 13 | | 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $51.48 | 90.91% | 13 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $51.46 | 90.91% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 49.2% covert 25.8% consumer 10.0% Classified 15.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt