---
title: "Over 9000 IQ case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Over 9000 IQ ($19.12) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 17 items with odds, observed 89.96% over 2,203 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq
rendered: 2026-11-11T19:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Over 9000 IQ](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Over 9000 IQ

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=all)

Price · $19.12 · 27.32 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $17.39 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.96% · 2,203 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 115.14% ±35.74 147 openings

7 days · 88.42% ±10.08 1,850 openings

30 days · 89.96% ±9.24 2,203 openings

since tracking started · 89.96% ±9.24 2,203 openings

77.5% 114.5% 151.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=24h) | 147 | 115.14% ±35.7 | +1.3σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=7d) | 1,850 | 88.42% ±10.1 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq) | 2,203 | 89.96% ±9.24 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/over-9000-iq?window=all) | 2,203 | 89.96% ±9.24 | −0.2σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,207 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $218 312 coins | 25.1% | 42 | 44.1 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $169 241 coins | 29.1% | 69 | 66.2 | 1.04× |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $52.51 75.02 coins | 15.1% | 114 | 110.3 | 1.03× |
| [Glock-18 \| Brass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-brass-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33 | $42.74 61.06 coins | 7.4% | 52 | 66.2 | 0.79× |
| [M4A1-S \| Atomic Alloy (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-atomic-alloy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $35.62 50.88 coins | 2.0% | 19 | 22.1 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $27.65 39.5 coins | 3.2% | 45 | 44.1 | 1.02× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $27.59 39.41 coins | 6.3% | 89 | 88.3 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $23.30 33.28 coins | 5.4% | 89 | 88.3 | 1.01× |
| [AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-point-disarray-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $19.12 27.31 coins | 2.2% | 41 | 44.1 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Tornado (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tornado-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $6.59 9.42 coins | 1.9% | 114 | 110.3 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.96 1.37 coins | 0.3% | 104 | 110.3 | 0.94× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-amber-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $0.95 1.36 coins | 0.4% | 172 | 154.5 | 1.11× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $0.88 1.26 coins | 0.6% | 283 | 264.8 | 1.07× |
| [SSG 08 \| Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.71 1.01 coins | 0.2% | 144 | 132.4 | 1.09× |
| [P250 \| Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) | 22.0% | $0.45 0.64 coins | 0.6% | 491 | 485.5 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Candy Apple (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-candy-apple-factory-new) | 1 in 17 | $0.27 0.39 coins | 0.1% | 114 | 132.4 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) | 11.0% | $0.15 0.22 coins | 0.1% | 225 | 242.8 | 0.93× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=over-9000-iq)

[Sawed-Off | Highwayman (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-highwayman-field-tested) [Ra-Kun](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ra-Kun) $19.12 27.32 coins $0.96 1.37 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $27.59 39.41 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-mecha-industries-factory-new) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $23.30 33.28 coins 1.22x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[M4A1-S | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $169 241 coins 8.82x 2026-11-11 19:25 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Limelight (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-limelight-battle-scarred) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $0.88 1.26 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[P250 | Valence (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-valence-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $0.45 0.64 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Urban Rubble (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-urban-rubble-field-tested) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[SSG 08 | Hand Brake (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-hand-brake-minimal-wear) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-well-worn) Hidden $19.12 27.32 coins $27.59 39.41 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

[Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) [Shiba inu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shiba%20inu) $19.12 27.32 coins $52.51 75.02 coins 2.75x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $19.12 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $19.13 | 90.89% | 17 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $19.12 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $19.12 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $19.14 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $19.15 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $19.09 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $19.03 | 90.92% | 17 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $19.03 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $19.03 | 90.91% | 17 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $19.03 | 90.90% | 17 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.05 | 90.90% | 17 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 14.0% restricted 20.0% classified 16.0% industrial 11.0% mil spec 39.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt