--- title: "Overload case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Overload ($0.45) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 91.54% from 17 items with odds, observed 268.57% over 22.1K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Overload](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Overload A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=all) Price · $0.45 · 0.64 coins Advertised RTP · 91.54% · EV $0.41 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 268.57% · 22.1K openings, odds method Variance · 57243.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 142,857 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 100.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 4,017 openings · below min 7 days · 18,727 openings · below min 30 days · 22,071 openings · below min since tracking started · 22,071 openings · below min -0.5% 1101.8% 2204.0% **Small sample.** 22,071 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=24h) | 4,017 | 1463.53% ±739.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=7d) | 18.7K | 316.07% ±342.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload) | 22.1K | 268.57% ±315.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/overload?window=all) | 22.1K | 268.57% ±315.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 22.1K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Sticker \| Titan (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-titan-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $63.7K 90,950 coins | 15.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $53.5K 76,380 coins | 13.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-reason-gaming-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $38K 54,245 coins | 9.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-ldlc-com-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500,000 | $20.8K 29,650 coins | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014 sticker · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2014) | 1 in 500,000 | $17.6K 25,125 coins | 8.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $14.4K 20,545 coins | 7.0% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $11.9K 17,000 coins | 8.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $11.8K 16,905 coins | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $8,880 12,685 coins | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 500,000 | $6,808 9,725 coins | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000,000 | $6,545 9,350 coins | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 333,333 | $5,978 8,540 coins | 4.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-factory-new) | 1 in 500,000 | $5,600 8,000 coins | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New) gloves · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-king-snake-factory-new) | 1 in 333,333 | $2,037 2,910 coins | 1.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [P250 \| Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) | 34.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 1.7% | 7,557 | 7524.3 | 1.00× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 33.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 1.1% | 7,284 | 7303.6 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 33.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.6% | 7,289 | 7303.6 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [StatTrak™ M4A4 | Howl (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-howl-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $14.4K 20,545 coins 32,102x 2026-11-10 20:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-factory-new) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $11.9K 17,000 coins 26,563x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=overload) [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $0.02 0.03 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Shelp Jr.](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Shelp%20Jr.) $0.45 0.64 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:46 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [DogWater](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DogWater) $0.45 0.64 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $0.45 0.64 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $0.45 | 91.54% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $0.45 | 91.01% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.45 | 91.14% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.0% remarkable 0.0% contraband 0.0% covert 0.0% extraordinary 0.0% consumer 100.0% best hit $14.4K (32,102x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.54 on average: an expected loss of $8.46 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt