--- title: "Oxidized case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Oxidized ($128.09) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 11 items with odds, observed 85.37% over 46 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized rendered: 2026-11-11T14:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Oxidized](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Oxidized A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=all) Price · $128.09 · 183 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $116.44 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 85.37% · 46 openings, odds method Variance · 0.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 45.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 54.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 46 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min 66.5% 85.3% 104.0% **Small sample.** 46 openings and 20.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=7d) | 46 | 85.37% ±18.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized) | 46 | 85.37% ±18.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/oxidized?window=all) | 46 | 85.37% ±18.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-blue-steel-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $488 697 coins | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $221 316 coins | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 1 in 50 | $220 314 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-ibuypower-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 50 | $204 291 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 40.0% | $193 276 coins | 66.4% | 18 | 18.4 | 0.98× | | [P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $118 169 coins | 5.1% | 4 | 2.3 | 1.74× | | [StatTrak™ P90 \| Cold Blooded (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p90-cold-blooded-minimal-wear) | 11.5% | $68.92 98.46 coins | 6.8% | 4 | 5.3 | 0.76× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $47.48 67.83 coins | 2.0% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $39.98 57.12 coins | 1.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $34.22 48.88 coins | 2.4% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.63× | | [AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) | 20.0% | $25.44 36.34 coins | 4.4% | 11 | 9.2 | 1.20× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=oxidized) [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $132 188 coins $201 287 coins 1.52x 2026-11-06 11:50 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $132 188 coins $36.71 52.44 coins 0.28x 2026-11-06 11:50 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $132 188 coins $201 287 coins 1.52x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $132 188 coins $201 287 coins 1.52x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-desert-shamagh-field-tested) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $132 188 coins $36.71 52.44 coins 0.28x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $132 188 coins $201 287 coins 1.52x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [AUG | Momentum (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-momentum-factory-new) Hidden $132 188 coins $27.92 39.88 coins 0.21x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Overtake (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-well-worn) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $132 188 coins $40.05 57.21 coins 0.30x 2026-11-06 11:48 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) Hidden $132 188 coins $201 287 coins 1.52x 2026-11-06 11:46 UTC [P90 | Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-emerald-dragon-minimal-wear) [L3MON™ csgoroll.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/L3MON%E2%84%A2%20csgoroll.com) $132 188 coins $113 161 coins 0.85x 2026-11-06 11:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $128 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $129 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $132 | 90.91% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 48.5% high 2.0% classified 36.5% extraordinary 13.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt