--- title: "Ozymandias case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Ozymandias ($253.95) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 22 items with odds, observed 100.81% over 111 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias rendered: 2026-11-11T18:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Ozymandias](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Ozymandias A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=all) Price · $253.95 · 363 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $230.87 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 100.81% · 111 openings, odds method Variance · 0.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.7% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 68.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 32 openings · below min 7 days · 102.33% ±16.89 105 openings 30 days · 100.81% ±16.43 111 openings since tracking started · 100.81% ±16.43 111 openings 83.5% 135.8% 188.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=24h) | 32 | 156.64% ±30.5 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=7d) | 105 | 102.33% ±16.9 | +1.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias) | 111 | 100.81% ±16.4 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/ozymandias?window=all) | 111 | 100.81% ±16.4 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $6,542 9,345 coins | 0.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,655 2,364 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [★ Karambit \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $1,058 1,512 coins | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $937 1,339 coins | 4.1% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.90× | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $817 1,167 coins | 3.5% | 0 | 1.1 | 0.00× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $795 1,135 coins | 8.6% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.80× | | [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 67 | $784 1,120 coins | 5.1% | 6 | 1.7 | 3.60× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-tiger-tooth-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50 | $571 815 coins | 4.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.45× | | [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $552 788 coins | 6.9% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.24× | | [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 36 | $445 636 coins | 5.4% | 6 | 3.1 | 1.93× | | [Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-natus-vincere-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 29 | $407 582 coins | 6.2% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $390 557 coins | 5.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $377 539 coins | 8.7% | 7 | 5.9 | 1.18× | | [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $278 397 coins | 3.6% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.60× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 40 | $264 377 coins | 2.9% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.16× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 20 | $184 263 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 5.6 | 0.18× | | [★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 19 | $184 263 coins | 4.2% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $181 258 coins | 4.7% | 4 | 6.7 | 0.60× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) | 10.5% | $122 175 coins | 5.6% | 16 | 11.7 | 1.37× | | [MP9 \| Bulldozer (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-bulldozer-well-worn) | 20.2% | $85.40 122 coins | 7.5% | 17 | 22.4 | 0.76× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 11.0% | $72.10 103 coins | 3.4% | 14 | 12.2 | 1.15× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 10.5% | $64.32 91.88 coins | 2.9% | 12 | 11.7 | 1.03× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $257 368 coins $1,002 1,431 coins 3.89x 2026-11-04 21:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $257 368 coins $800 1,143 coins 3.11x 2026-11-06 10:03 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $795 1,135 coins 3.13x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $795 1,135 coins 3.13x 2026-11-10 23:36 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) [m3](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/m3) $254 363 coins $795 1,135 coins 3.13x 2026-11-09 01:43 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $257 368 coins $786 1,123 coins 3.05x 2026-11-06 01:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) Hidden $257 368 coins $786 1,123 coins 3.05x 2026-11-04 21:42 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $784 1,120 coins 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $784 1,120 coins 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $784 1,120 coins 3.09x 2026-11-10 23:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=ozymandias) [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $184 263 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $784 1,120 coins 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Bowie Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $184 263 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $254 363 coins $184 263 coins 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $264 377 coins 1.04x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-the-empress-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $377 539 coins 1.49x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $784 1,120 coins 3.09x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $254 363 coins $552 788 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-factory-new) Hidden $254 363 coins $122 175 coins 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC [Desert Eagle | Blaze (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-minimal-wear) Hidden $254 363 coins $552 788 coins 2.17x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $254 | 90.91% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $257 | 90.91% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 59.8% restricted 23.1% epic 2.8% remarkable 3.5% rare 5.3% legendary 3.0% extraordinary 2.5% best hit $1,002 (3.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt