--- title: "Packed case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Packed ($8.18) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.89% from 28 items with odds, observed 89.51% over 44.5K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed rendered: 2026-11-11T13:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Packed](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Packed A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=all) Price · $8.18 · 11.68 coins Advertised RTP · 90.89% · EV $7.43 from 28 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.51% · 44.5K openings, odds method Variance · 13.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 39 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 86.26% ±10.05 5,071 openings 7 days · 90.50% ±3.79 36K openings 30 days · 89.51% ±3.42 44.5K openings since tracking started · 89.51% ±3.42 44.5K openings 75.5% 86.3% 97.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=24h) | 5,071 | 86.26% ±10.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=7d) | 36K | 90.50% ±3.79 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed) | 44.5K | 89.51% ±3.42 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/packed?window=all) | 44.5K | 89.51% ±3.42 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 44.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $792 1,131 coins | 1.1% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $605 864 coins | 0.8% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $505 721 coins | 0.7% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $401 573 coins | 0.5% | 3 | 4.5 | 0.67× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $366 523 coins | 0.5% | 2 | 4.5 | 0.45× | | [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $328 469 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 4.5 | 0.22× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Spearmint (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-spearmint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $299 427 coins | 0.4% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× | | [★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/bloodhound-gloves-bronzed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $223 319 coins | 3.0% | 57 | 44.6 | 1.28× | | [P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-asiimov-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $218 312 coins | 14.7% | 216 | 222.8 | 0.97× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-finish-line-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $133 190 coins | 7.2% | 173 | 178.2 | 0.97× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-tiger-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $128 183 coins | 8.6% | 250 | 222.8 | 1.12× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $123 176 coins | 0.2% | 4 | 4.5 | 0.90× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $122 174 coins | 4.9% | 132 | 133.7 | 0.99× | | [★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-bronze-morph-minimal-wear) | 1 in 500 | $116 166 coins | 3.1% | 71 | 89.1 | 0.80× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-field-agent-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $98.70 141 coins | 6.6% | 205 | 222.8 | 0.92× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $95.20 136 coins | 6.4% | 218 | 222.8 | 0.98× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 200 | $88.90 127 coins | 6.0% | 220 | 222.8 | 0.99× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-polygon-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $84.00 120 coins | 5.7% | 224 | 222.8 | 1.01× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-overprint-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $72.80 104 coins | 4.9% | 240 | 222.8 | 1.08× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) gloves · extraordinary · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 200 | $39.78 56.83 coins | 2.7% | 231 | 222.8 | 1.04× | | [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-yellow-banded-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $38.99 55.7 coins | 2.6% | 217 | 222.8 | 0.97× | | [MP7 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $37.46 53.52 coins | 12.2% | 1,077 | 1078.3 | 1.00× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Arboreal (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-arboreal-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $34.31 49.01 coins | 2.3% | 229 | 222.8 | 1.03× | | [★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hydra-gloves-rattler-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $27.38 39.11 coins | 1.8% | 219 | 222.8 | 0.98× | | [MP9 \| Airlock (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-airlock-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $20.05 28.65 coins | 1.3% | 221 | 222.8 | 0.99× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 1.2% | 244 | 222.8 | 1.10× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.1% | 20,112 | 20051.5 | 1.00× | | [MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 45.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 19,981 | 20051.5 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $814 1,163 coins 98.31x 2026-11-08 02:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $814 1,163 coins 98.31x 2026-11-06 17:43 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Arid (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-arid-field-tested) [Gobbles](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Gobbles) $8.28 11.83 coins $814 1,163 coins 98.31x 2026-11-02 22:59 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.28 11.83 coins $629 899 coins 75.99x 2026-11-07 09:33 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-case-hardened-minimal-wear) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $605 864 coins 73.97x 2026-11-10 02:29 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [mAY0NESY](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/mAY0NESY) $8.28 11.83 coins $515 736 coins 62.21x 2026-11-03 21:51 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [Doktoraiai](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Doktoraiai) $8.18 11.68 coins $505 721 coins 61.73x 2026-11-11 09:16 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $505 721 coins 61.73x 2026-11-10 09:30 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-nocts-field-tested) [Trex](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Trex) $8.18 11.68 coins $505 721 coins 61.73x 2026-11-09 10:39 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=packed) [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [MP7 | Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-whiteout-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $37.46 53.52 coins 4.58x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) [Eminescu](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Eminescu) $8.18 11.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 11.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $8.18 | 90.89% | 28 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $8.10 | 90.88% | 28 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.28 | 90.91% | 28 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed extraordinary 6.1% classified 0.5% covert 0.5% mil spec 2.4% restricted 0.5% consumer 90.0% best hit $814 (98.31x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.89 on average: an expected loss of $9.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt