--- title: "Pain case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pain ($200.99) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 17 items with odds, observed 221.13% over 27 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain rendered: 2026-11-11T13:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pain](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pain A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=all) Price · $200.99 · 287 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $182.72 from 17 items Observed RTP, 30d · 221.13% · 27 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 19.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 27 openings · below min 30 days · 27 openings · below min since tracking started · 27 openings · below min 90.5% 184.0% 277.5% **Small sample.** 27 openings and 5.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=7d) | 27 | 221.13% ±55.7 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain) | 27 | 221.13% ±55.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pain?window=all) | 27 | 221.13% ±55.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,941 9,915 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.0 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 400 | $1,928 2,755 coins | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [AWP \| The Prince (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-battle-scarred) | 1 in 286 | $1,528 2,183 coins | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $1,472 2,103 coins | 4.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 125 | $1,204 1,720 coins | 5.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $479 684 coins | 9.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 59 | $410 585 coins | 3.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-queen-jaguar-factory-new) | 1 in 77 | $370 529 coins | 2.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Sticker \| niko (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-niko-gold-london-2018) | 1 in 13 | $346 494 coins | 14.8% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.47× | | [★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-autotronic-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $291 416 coins | 4.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Souvenir Galil AR \| Cerberus (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-galil-ar-cerberus-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $269 384 coins | 6.6% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [★ Bayonet \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-case-hardened-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $215 307 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.23× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) | 12.0% | $111 159 coins | 7.3% | 7 | 3.2 | 2.16× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 14.0% | $94.50 135 coins | 7.2% | 2 | 3.8 | 0.53× | | [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 15.4% | $88.90 127 coins | 7.5% | 2 | 4.2 | 0.48× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $87.50 125 coins | 6.7% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.79× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $49.60 70.86 coins | 4.1% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.23× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $6,930 9,900 coins 34.35x 2026-11-04 15:04 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 288 coins $1,383 1,975 coins 6.85x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pain) [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 288 coins $1,383 1,975 coins 6.85x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-damascus-steel-battle-scarred) Hidden $202 288 coins $51.48 73.54 coins 0.26x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $202 288 coins $100 143 coins 0.50x 2026-11-06 23:50 UTC [★ Moto Gloves | Boom! (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-boom-battle-scarred) Hidden $202 288 coins $87.50 125 coins 0.43x 2026-11-06 05:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) [LongKoala](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/LongKoala) $202 288 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-06 05:50 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-05 00:36 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 288 coins $100 143 coins 0.50x 2026-11-05 00:36 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) Hidden $202 288 coins $85.40 122 coins 0.42x 2026-11-05 00:36 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-night-well-worn) Hidden $202 288 coins $109 156 coins 0.54x 2026-11-05 00:36 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 17 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $201 | 90.91% | 17 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $202 | 90.91% | 17 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 56.3% legendary 0.3% extraordinary 23.6% restricted 4.5% classified 15.4% best hit $6,930 (34.35x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt