--- title: "Paparazzi case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Paparazzi ($17.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 16 items with odds, observed 92.30% over 3,438 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi rendered: 2026-11-11T17:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Paparazzi](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Paparazzi A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=all) Price · $17.82 · 25.46 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $16.20 from 16 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.30% · 3,438 openings, odds method Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 11.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 95.27% ±20.37 334 openings 7 days · 93.29% ±6.88 2,926 openings 30 days · 92.30% ±6.34 3,438 openings since tracking started · 92.30% ±6.34 3,438 openings 74.0% 95.3% 116.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=24h) | 334 | 95.27% ±20.4 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=7d) | 2,926 | 93.29% ±6.88 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi) | 3,438 | 92.30% ±6.34 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paparazzi?window=all) | 3,438 | 92.30% ±6.34 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,442 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-hot-rod-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $328 468 coins | 3.0% | 7 | 5.2 | 1.36× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $286 408 coins | 3.5% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [Sticker \| s1mple (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-s1mple-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 222 | $283 404 coins | 7.9% | 20 | 15.5 | 1.29× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Scorched (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-scorched-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $143 204 coins | 4.4% | 19 | 17.2 | 1.10× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $123 176 coins | 3.8% | 26 | 17.2 | 1.51× | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $84.70 121 coins | 7.8% | 60 | 51.6 | 1.16× | | [Sticker \| FaZe Clan (Foil) \| London 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-foil-london-2018) | 1 in 50 | $84.00 120 coins | 10.4% | 64 | 68.8 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-momentum-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $59.09 84.41 coins | 9.1% | 67 | 86.1 | 0.78× | | [Sticker \| olofmeister (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-olofmeister-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 29 | $43.04 61.48 coins | 9.0% | 112 | 117.0 | 0.96× | | [Sticker \| Copenhagen Wolves \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-copenhagen-wolves-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 29 | $37.29 53.27 coins | 8.1% | 115 | 120.5 | 0.95× | | [XM1014 \| Red Leather (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-red-leather-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $37.18 53.11 coins | 9.9% | 127 | 148.0 | 0.86× | | [Sticker \| Fnatic \| Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) | 1 in 14 | $13.43 19.19 coins | 6.0% | 228 | 247.8 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $11.45 16.36 coins | 5.9% | 298 | 287.4 | 1.04× | | [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) | 14.8% | $10.33 14.75 coins | 9.4% | 518 | 507.7 | 1.02× | | [M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) | 25.0% | $0.62 0.88 coins | 1.0% | 902 | 860.5 | 1.05× | | [M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) | 25.7% | $0.55 0.79 coins | 0.9% | 873 | 884.6 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=paparazzi) [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $0.55 0.79 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [M4A1-S | Night Terror (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-night-terror-well-worn) [Fybzen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Fybzen) $17.82 25.46 coins $0.55 0.79 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $13.43 19.19 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [Sticker | FaZe Clan (Foil) | London 2018 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-faze-clan-foil-london-2018) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $84.00 120 coins 4.71x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $10.33 14.75 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-bloodsport-field-tested) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $10.33 14.75 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 17:23 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-sheet-lightning-well-worn) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $0.62 0.88 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC [Sticker | Fnatic | Katowice 2015 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fnatic-katowice-2015) Hidden $17.82 25.46 coins $13.43 19.19 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 17:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $17.82 | 90.91% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.82 | 90.89% | 16 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.96 | 90.92% | 16 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.00 | 90.91% | 16 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed mil spec 4.5% covert 0.7% exotic 5.9% extraordinary 0.5% classified 18.8% high 10.7% restricted 34.1% #8847ff 25.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt