--- title: "Paradox case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Paradox ($45.73) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 9 items with odds, observed 92.58% over 631 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox rendered: 2026-11-11T15:01Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Paradox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Paradox A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=all) Price · $45.73 · 65.33 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $41.57 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.58% · 631 openings, odds method Variance · 1.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 61.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 78.41% ±23.07 112 openings 7 days · 95.97% ±10.53 536 openings 30 days · 92.58% ±9.71 631 openings since tracking started · 92.58% ±9.71 631 openings 54.5% 80.8% 107.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=24h) | 112 | 78.41% ±23.1 | −1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=7d) | 536 | 95.97% ±10.5 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox) | 631 | 92.58% ±9.71 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paradox?window=all) | 631 | 92.58% ±9.71 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 631 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $198 283 coins | 14.3% | 22 | 18.9 | 1.16× | | [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $197 281 coins | 11.8% | 10 | 15.8 | 0.63× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $162 231 coins | 3.9% | 2 | 6.3 | 0.32× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $162 231 coins | 15.6% | 35 | 25.2 | 1.39× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $144 205 coins | 5.2% | 13 | 9.5 | 1.37× | | [AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) | 27.0% | $65.95 94.22 coins | 42.8% | 162 | 170.4 | 0.95× | | [Souvenir Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-glock-18-candy-apple-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $15.30 21.85 coins | 2.6% | 51 | 44.2 | 1.15× | | [Souvenir P90 \| Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) | 12.0% | $13.26 18.94 coins | 3.8% | 85 | 75.7 | 1.12× | | [PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) | 42.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 251 | 265.0 | 0.95× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=paradox) [Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $13.26 18.94 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $13.26 18.94 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $65.95 94.22 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) [AWP GOD](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/AWP%20GOD) $45.73 65.33 coins $65.95 94.22 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [AK-47 | Leet Museo (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-leet-museo-well-worn) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $65.95 94.22 coins 1.44x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [Souvenir P90 | Teardown (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p90-teardown-battle-scarred) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $45.73 65.33 coins $13.26 18.94 coins 0.29x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $45.73 65.33 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:44 UTC [PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-sand-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $45.73 65.33 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:44 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $45.73 | 90.91% | 9 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $45.92 | 90.91% | 9 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.77 | 90.91% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 37.5% extraordinary 1.5% mil spec 19.0% consumer 42.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt