--- title: "Paralyzer case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Paralyzer ($3.82) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 91.84% over 20.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer rendered: 2026-11-11T15:41Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Paralyzer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Paralyzer A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=all) Price · $3.82 · 5.45 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $3.47 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 91.84% · 20.7K openings, odds method Variance · 15.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 23.5% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75.36% ±18.97 1,609 openings 7 days · 93.36% ±5.49 18.1K openings 30 days · 91.84% ±5.12 20.7K openings since tracking started · 91.84% ±5.12 20.7K openings 55.5% 77.5% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=24h) | 1,609 | 75.36% ±19.0 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=7d) | 18.1K | 93.36% ±5.49 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer) | 20.7K | 91.84% ±5.12 | +0.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paralyzer?window=all) | 20.7K | 91.84% ±5.12 | +0.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) | 1 in 83,333 | $1,271 1,816 coins | 0.4% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) | 1 in 22,222 | $1,050 1,500 coins | 1.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,753 | $557 795 coins | 1.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.07× | | [Souvenir M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) | 1 in 4,000 | $451 645 coins | 3.3% | 6 | 5.2 | 1.16× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-vaporwave-factory-new) | 1 in 1,818 | $270 386 coins | 4.3% | 12 | 11.4 | 1.05× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Big Swell (Well-Worn) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-big-swell-well-worn) | 1 in 1,538 | $152 217 coins | 2.8% | 9 | 13.5 | 0.67× | | [FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-waters-of-nephthys-factory-new) | 1 in 1,250 | $108 154 coins | 2.5% | 18 | 16.6 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $59.58 85.12 coins | 1.5% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× | | [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 833 | $42.21 60.3 coins | 1.5% | 19 | 24.9 | 0.76× | | [AUG \| Anodized Navy (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-anodized-navy-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $21.95 31.35 coins | 2.5% | 68 | 82.9 | 0.82× | | [MP7 \| Cirrus (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-cirrus-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $10.91 15.59 coins | 2.2% | 146 | 145.1 | 1.01× | | [StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-avalanche-minimal-wear) | 1 in 105 | $8.44 12.05 coins | 2.3% | 195 | 196.9 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-liquidation-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $6.05 8.64 coins | 3.1% | 333 | 362.8 | 0.92× | | [StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 34 | $5.58 7.97 coins | 4.7% | 556 | 601.1 | 0.92× | | [Sticker \| electronic (Holo) \| Copenhagen 2024 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-electronic-holo-copenhagen-2024) | 1 in 16 | $5.16 7.37 coins | 9.1% | 1,258 | 1274.8 | 0.99× | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 10.2% | $5.05 7.21 coins | 14.8% | 2,064 | 2114.4 | 0.98× | | [Sticker \| Gold Web (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-web-foil) | 12.5% | $3.14 4.48 coins | 11.3% | 2,603 | 2591.1 | 1.00× | | [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 14.5% | $2.85 4.07 coins | 11.9% | 3,036 | 3005.7 | 1.01× | | [MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) | 15.5% | $2.49 3.56 coins | 11.1% | 3,283 | 3213.0 | 1.02× | | [Dual Berettas \| Urban Shock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-well-worn) | 16.5% | $1.39 1.98 coins | 6.6% | 3,451 | 3420.3 | 1.01× | | [Zeus x27 \| Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) | 17.5% | $0.22 0.32 coins | 1.1% | 3,652 | 3627.6 | 1.01× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire) StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-skeleton-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-sapphire) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $1,271 1,816 coins 333.2x 2026-11-10 15:36 UTC [★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-black-tie-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $1,100 1,572 coins 282.7x 2026-11-06 15:42 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $557 795 coins 143.0x 2026-11-08 14:18 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $557 795 coins 143.0x 2026-11-06 03:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [Ryan](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Ryan) $3.89 5.56 coins $557 795 coins 143.0x 2026-11-05 23:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [xXxBlackqunxXx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/xXxBlackqunxXx) $3.90 5.57 coins $557 795 coins 142.7x 2026-11-05 17:54 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $385 550 coins 98.92x 2026-11-06 21:50 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $385 550 coins 98.92x 2026-11-06 04:34 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $385 550 coins 98.92x 2026-11-06 02:20 UTC [Souvenir M4A1-S | Master Piece (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m4a1-s-master-piece-factory-new) Hidden $3.89 5.56 coins $385 550 coins 98.92x 2026-11-06 02:19 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=paralyzer) [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) [McDize](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/McDize) $3.82 5.45 coins $2.49 3.56 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $2.49 3.56 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $0.22 0.32 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-urban-shock-well-worn) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $1.39 1.98 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:25 UTC [MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-bi83-spectrum-minimal-wear) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $2.49 3.56 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $0.22 0.32 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Sticker | Gold Web (Foil) sticker · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gold-web-foil) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $3.14 4.48 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) [st1cky is grinding...](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/st1cky%20is%20grinding...) $3.82 5.45 coins $2.85 4.07 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [Zeus x27 | Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $2.85 4.07 coins 0.75x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC [Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-electric-blue-factory-new) Hidden $3.82 5.45 coins $0.22 0.32 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $3.82 | 90.91% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $3.82 | 90.94% | 21 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.91 | 90.84% | 21 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $3.89 | 90.99% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.90 | 90.88% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed legendary 0.1% extraordinary 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 24.9% rare 0.1% restricted 35.9% mil spec 1.1% uncommon 19.3% exotic 6.2% #d32ce6 12.5% best hit $1,271 (333.2x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt