--- title: "Paranoid case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Paranoid ($229.15) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 21 items with odds, observed 93.52% over 705 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid rendered: 2026-11-11T14:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Paranoid](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Paranoid A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=all) Price · $229.15 · 327 coins Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $208.32 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.52% · 705 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 18.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 75 openings · below min 7 days · 91.67% ±12.93 572 openings 30 days · 93.52% ±11.63 705 openings since tracking started · 93.52% ±11.63 705 openings 40.5% 77.3% 114.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=24h) | 75 | 77.43% ±36.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=7d) | 572 | 91.67% ±12.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid) | 705 | 93.52% ±11.6 | +0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/paranoid?window=all) | 705 | 93.52% ±11.6 | +0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 705 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [AWP \| Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 333 | $5,688 8,125 coins | 8.2% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.42× | | [Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) | 1 in 133 | $1,387 1,982 coins | 5.0% | 6 | 5.3 | 1.13× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-factory-new) | 1 in 143 | $1,292 1,845 coins | 4.3% | 5 | 4.9 | 1.01× | | [AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,233 1,762 coins | 2.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× | | [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 182 | $806 1,152 coins | 2.1% | 1 | 3.9 | 0.26× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fuel-injector-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $795 1,135 coins | 3.8% | 9 | 7.0 | 1.28× | | [★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-crimson-web-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $767 1,095 coins | 1.8% | 3 | 3.5 | 0.85× | | [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 125 | $751 1,073 coins | 2.9% | 7 | 5.6 | 1.24× | | [★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $642 917 coins | 6.2% | 17 | 14.1 | 1.21× | | [★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/moto-gloves-pow-factory-new) | 1 in 154 | $475 678 coins | 1.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-flip-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 29 | $287 410 coins | 4.8% | 20 | 24.7 | 0.81× | | [★ Flip Knife \| Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-lore-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $235 336 coins | 3.4% | 20 | 21.1 | 0.95× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 25 | $197 281 coins | 3.8% | 33 | 28.2 | 1.17× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) | 19.4% | $189 270 coins | 17.6% | 118 | 136.4 | 0.86× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 15 | $118 168 coins | 3.7% | 56 | 45.8 | 1.22× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) | 1 in 14 | $115 165 coins | 3.9% | 41 | 49.4 | 0.83× | | [★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $115 164 coins | 2.8% | 31 | 35.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 12.0% | $113 162 coins | 6.5% | 80 | 84.6 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) | 10.0% | $102 145 coins | 4.9% | 74 | 70.5 | 1.05× | | [Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) | 14.0% | $100 143 coins | 6.7% | 108 | 98.7 | 1.09× | | [★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $99.40 142 coins | 3.8% | 66 | 56.4 | 1.17× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) [The other other guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/The%20other%20other%20guy) $229 327 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 24.82x 2026-11-09 20:57 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $233 333 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 24.43x 2026-11-07 07:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-well-worn) Hidden $233 333 coins $5,688 8,125 coins 24.43x 2026-11-03 22:09 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-07 01:17 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-06 22:07 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) [Řəđ§ķý](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%C5%98%C9%99%C4%91%C2%A7%C4%B7%C3%BD) $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-05 22:08 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-05 14:01 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-05 01:19 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-04 22:36 UTC [Sticker | Vox Eminor (Holo) | Katowice 2015 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-vox-eminor-holo-katowice-2015) Hidden $233 333 coins $1,415 2,021 coins 6.08x 2026-11-04 14:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=paranoid) [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $229 327 coins $118 168 coins 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-1) Hidden $229 327 coins $115 165 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:58 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) Hidden $229 327 coins $99.40 142 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:42 UTC [Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) Hidden $229 327 coins $100 143 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) Hidden $229 327 coins $102 145 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $229 327 coins $642 917 coins 2.80x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-field-tested) [karma](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/karma) $229 327 coins $102 145 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-revolution-factory-new) Hidden $229 327 coins $189 270 coins 0.82x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-v4lde-gold-london-2018) Hidden $229 327 coins $100 143 coins 0.44x 2026-11-11 12:24 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-marble-fade-field-tested) Hidden $229 327 coins $115 164 coins 0.50x 2026-11-11 11:40 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $229 | 90.91% | 21 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $233 | 90.91% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 78.4% remarkable 0.8% extraordinary 20.4% legendary 0.5% best hit $5,688 (24.82x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt