---
title: "Parlay case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Parlay ($32.68) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 24 items with odds, observed 82.67% over 3,266 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:35Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Parlay](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Parlay

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=all)

Price · $32.68 · 46.68 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $29.71 from 24 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.67% · 3,266 openings, odds method

Variance · 9.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 69.74% ±46.75 160 openings

7 days · 81.15% ±11.34 2,757 openings

30 days · 82.67% ±10.43 3,266 openings

since tracking started · 82.67% ±10.43 3,266 openings

22.5% 69.8% 117.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=24h) | 160 | 69.74% ±46.7 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=7d) | 2,757 | 81.15% ±11.3 | −1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay) | 3,266 | 82.67% ±10.4 | −1.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/parlay?window=all) | 3,266 | 82.67% ±10.4 | −1.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,266 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,089 1,555 coins | 3.7% | 1 | 3.3 | 0.31× |
| [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,000 | $861 1,230 coins | 2.9% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.84× |
| [StatTrak™ AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $856 1,223 coins | 2.9% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 1,000 | $636 909 coins | 2.1% | 2 | 3.3 | 0.61× |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Lunar Weave (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-lunar-weave-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $588 840 coins | 19.8% | 23 | 32.7 | 0.70× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 1,000 | $517 738 coins | 1.7% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $466 666 coins | 7.8% | 16 | 16.3 | 0.98× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $222 317 coins | 7.5% | 30 | 32.7 | 0.92× |
| [M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-bullet-rain-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $200 286 coins | 6.7% | 39 | 32.7 | 1.19× |
| [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-vulcan-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $198 283 coins | 6.7% | 27 | 32.7 | 0.83× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 100 | $194 277 coins | 6.5% | 39 | 32.7 | 1.19× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $158 225 coins | 5.3% | 28 | 32.7 | 0.86× |
| [★ Stiletto Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $151 215 coins | 5.1% | 31 | 32.7 | 0.95× |
| [★ Classic Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $151 215 coins | 5.1% | 45 | 32.7 | 1.38× |
| [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $122 175 coins | 4.1% | 23 | 32.7 | 0.70× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 100 | $93.10 133 coins | 3.1% | 33 | 32.7 | 1.01× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Cobalt Disruption (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-cobalt-disruption-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $66.79 95.42 coins | 2.2% | 13 | 32.7 | 0.40× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $61.62 88.03 coins | 2.1% | 35 | 32.7 | 1.07× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $59.65 85.22 coins | 2.0% | 34 | 32.7 | 1.04× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Dragon Snore (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-dragon-snore-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $33.81 48.3 coins | 1.1% | 32 | 32.7 | 0.98× |
| [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 21.0% | $1.15 1.65 coins | 0.8% | 726 | 685.9 | 1.06× |
| [SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) | 21.0% | $0.83 1.18 coins | 0.6% | 660 | 685.9 | 0.96× |
| [M4A4 \| Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) | 21.0% | $0.10 0.14 coins | 0.1% | 698 | 685.9 | 1.02× |
| [MAC-10 \| Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) | 22.0% | \<$0.01 0.01 coins | 0.0% | 720 | 718.5 | 1.00× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $1,126 1,608 coins 34.99x 2026-11-05 22:13 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $875 1,250 coins 27.20x 2026-11-03 02:07 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.68 46.69 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.34x 2026-11-09 14:14 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.77x 2026-11-07 18:26 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.77x 2026-11-07 06:33 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.77x 2026-11-07 00:41 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.77x 2026-11-05 18:51 UTC

[★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-crimson-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $861 1,230 coins 26.77x 2026-11-03 15:14 UTC

[StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $32.68 46.69 coins $856 1,223 coins 26.19x 2026-11-09 12:55 UTC

[★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/ursus-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $32.17 45.95 coins $641 915 coins 19.91x 2026-11-06 18:33 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=parlay)

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $1.15 1.65 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $0.83 1.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) [Relaxa \*](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Relaxa%20*-7036790) $32.68 46.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $61.62 88.03 coins 1.89x 2026-11-11 12:51 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $0.83 1.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[MAC-10 | Palm (Field-Tested) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-palm-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-abyss-minimal-wear) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $0.83 1.18 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[M4A4 | Urban DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-urban-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $32.68 46.68 coins $0.10 0.14 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $32.68 | 90.92% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $32.68 | 90.90% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $32.70 | 90.92% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $32.84 | 90.91% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.17 | 90.90% | 24 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 11.0% extraordinary 1.0% classified 2.0% rare 1.0% Mythical 21.0% mil spec 21.0% Uncommon 21.0% industrial 22.0% best hit $1,126 (34.99x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt