--- title: "Party Pooper case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Party Pooper ($17.30) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 11 items with odds, observed 89.16% over 767 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper rendered: 2026-11-11T18:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Party Pooper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Party Pooper A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=all) Price · $17.30 · 24.71 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $15.73 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.16% · 767 openings, odds method Variance · 1.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 20.1% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 94 openings · below min 7 days · 88.18% ±8.82 583 openings 30 days · 89.16% ±7.70 767 openings since tracking started · 89.16% ±7.70 767 openings 50.0% 73.8% 97.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=24h) | 94 | 72.36% ±21.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=7d) | 583 | 88.18% ±8.82 | −0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper) | 767 | 89.16% ±7.70 | −0.4σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/party-pooper?window=all) | 767 | 89.16% ±7.70 | −0.4σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 767 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-buzz-kill-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $396 565 coins | 1.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $126 180 coins | 4.0% | 3 | 3.8 | 0.78× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 200 | $77.00 110 coins | 2.4% | 5 | 3.8 | 1.30× | | [Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-candy-apple-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $54.19 77.42 coins | 3.4% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× | | [★ Gut Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 13 | $47.48 67.83 coins | 24.2% | 62 | 61.4 | 1.01× | | [Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-nuclear-garden-factory-new) | 10.0% | $38.19 54.56 coins | 24.3% | 76 | 76.7 | 0.99× | | [M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) | 10.0% | $11.90 17 coins | 7.6% | 64 | 76.7 | 0.83× | | [MP7 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) | 20.0% | $9.84 14.06 coins | 12.5% | 146 | 153.4 | 0.95× | | [Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hemoglobin-field-tested) | 10.0% | $9.02 12.89 coins | 5.7% | 74 | 76.7 | 0.96× | | [FAMAS \| Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) | 20.0% | $6.69 9.55 coins | 8.5% | 175 | 153.0 | 1.14× | | [Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) | 20.0% | $4.79 6.85 coins | 6.1% | 154 | 153.4 | 1.00× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=party-pooper) [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [Veckans](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Veckans) $17.30 24.71 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [WhattheHUH](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/WhattheHUH) $17.30 24.71 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [MP7 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-fade-factory-new) [DingDong](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/DingDong) $17.30 24.71 coins $9.84 14.06 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-bright-water-field-tested) [sakalaka bum bum](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/sakalaka%20bum%20bum) $17.30 24.71 coins $47.48 67.83 coins 2.75x 2026-11-11 17:26 UTC [FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-pulse-field-tested) Hidden $17.30 24.71 coins $6.69 9.55 coins 0.39x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) Hidden $17.30 24.71 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) Hidden $17.30 24.71 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-dragon-king-well-worn) [Pvpbotx](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Pvpbotx) $17.30 24.71 coins $11.90 17 coins 0.69x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) Hidden $17.30 24.71 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC [Sawed-Off | Devourer (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-devourer-well-worn) [Dab](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dab) $17.30 24.71 coins $4.79 6.85 coins 0.28x 2026-11-11 14:05 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $17.30 | 90.92% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $17.28 | 90.91% | 11 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $17.33 | 90.91% | 11 | | 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $17.35 | 90.92% | 11 | | 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $17.37 | 90.91% | 11 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.36 | 90.89% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 9.0% industrial 1.0% restricted 60.0% classified 30.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt