---
title: "Pawn case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Pawn ($9.72) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.91% from 13 items with odds, observed 89.96% over 15.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:21Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pawn](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn)

# [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pawn

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=all)

Price · $9.72 · 13.89 coins

Advertised RTP · 90.91% · EV $8.84 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 89.96% · 15.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 5.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.09% ±12.91 1,176 openings

7 days · 90.74% ±4.01 11.9K openings

30 days · 89.96% ±3.55 15.2K openings

since tracking started · 89.96% ±3.55 15.2K openings

77.5% 91.0% 104.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=24h) | 1,176 | 91.09% ±12.9 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=7d) | 11.9K | 90.74% ±4.01 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn) | 15.2K | 89.96% ±3.55 | −0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pawn?window=all) | 15.2K | 89.96% ±3.55 | −0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 15.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-bloodshot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 333 | $109 156 coins | 3.7% | 45 | 45.7 | 0.98× |
| [P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $95.90 137 coins | 54.2% | 753 | 762.2 | 0.99× |
| [★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-mogul-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $71.40 102 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 1.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 33 | $31.26 44.66 coins | 10.6% | 426 | 457.3 | 0.93× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $29.02 41.46 coins | 6.6% | 343 | 304.9 | 1.13× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-emerald-factory-new) | 1 in 145 | $27.90 39.86 coins | 2.2% | 93 | 105.2 | 0.88× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $11.93 17.04 coins | 6.7% | 775 | 762.2 | 1.02× |
| [M4A1-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 10.0% | $6.84 9.77 coins | 7.7% | 1,497 | 1524.4 | 0.98× |
| [AUG \| Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $2.39 3.41 coins | 1.4% | 782 | 762.2 | 1.03× |
| [Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.25 1.79 coins | 1.3% | 1,337 | 1372.0 | 0.97× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) | 20.0% | $0.89 1.27 coins | 2.0% | 3,035 | 3048.8 | 1.00× |
| [CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-eco-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.78 1.11 coins | 1.8% | 3,068 | 3048.8 | 1.01× |
| [Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.76 1.09 coins | 1.7% | 3,090 | 3048.8 | 1.01× |

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pawn)

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $0.76 1.09 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) [REAL SKINCOLLECTOR](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/REAL%20SKINCOLLECTOR) $9.72 13.89 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $0.76 1.09 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[Nova | Wild Six (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wild-six-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $1.25 1.79 coins 0.13x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[P250 | See Ya Later (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-see-ya-later-field-tested) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $95.90 137 coins 9.86x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[USP-S | Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $31.26 44.66 coins 3.22x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC

[AUG | Colony (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-colony-minimal-wear) [wSe](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/wSe) $9.72 13.89 coins $2.39 3.41 coins 0.25x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[M4A1-S | Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-flashback-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $6.84 9.77 coins 0.70x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[UMP-45 | Plastique (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-minimal-wear) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $0.89 1.27 coins 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

[Negev | Loudmouth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-loudmouth-field-tested) Hidden $9.72 13.89 coins $0.76 1.09 coins 0.08x 2026-11-11 13:19 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 00:04 UTC | $9.72 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.75 | 90.93% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $9.80 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $9.71 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $9.72 | 90.88% | 13 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed classified 5.3% covert 7.0% extraordinary 0.0% restricted 52.0% mil spec 0.7% Mythical 30.0% consumer 5.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.91 on average: an expected loss of $9.09 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt