--- title: "Peaceful case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Peaceful ($18.29) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.90% from 12 items with odds, observed 90.47% over 1,167 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful rendered: 2026-11-11T13:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Peaceful](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Peaceful A case on CSGORoll (70%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=all) Price · $18.29 · 26.13 coins Advertised RTP · 90.90% · EV $16.63 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 90.47% · 1,167 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 90.13% ±11.06 897 openings 30 days · 90.47% ±9.69 1,167 openings since tracking started · 90.47% ±9.69 1,167 openings 62.0% 103.0% 144.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=24h) | 68 | 102.84% ±40.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=7d) | 897 | 90.13% ±11.1 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful) | 1,167 | 90.47% ±9.69 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peaceful?window=all) | 1,167 | 90.47% ±9.69 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,171 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Souvenir SSG 08 \| Death Strike (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) | 1 in 67 | $194 277 coins | 17.5% | 18 | 17.6 | 1.02× | | [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 10,000 | $143 204 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sticker \| denis (Gold) \| Boston 2018 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-denis-gold-boston-2018) | 1 in 2,000 | $113 162 coins | 0.3% | 3 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-dual-berettas-cobra-strike-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $75.60 108 coins | 2.0% | 8 | 5.2 | 1.55× | | [Sticker \| Team Dignitas \| DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-dreamhack-2014) | 1 in 33 | $64.27 91.82 coins | 11.6% | 32 | 35.1 | 0.91× | | [Sticker \| gob b (Gold) \| Katowice 2019 sticker · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-gob-b-gold-katowice-2019) | 1 in 20 | $51.42 73.45 coins | 15.5% | 57 | 58.6 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-dragon-king-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $49.19 70.27 coins | 17.8% | 62 | 70.3 | 0.88× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $44.44 63.49 coins | 16.0% | 74 | 70.3 | 1.05× | | [StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-head-shot-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $39.84 56.91 coins | 19.2% | 90 | 93.7 | 0.96× | | [PP-Bizon \| Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 223 | 234.2 | 0.95× | | [G3SG1 \| Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 321 | 292.8 | 1.10× | | [Nova \| Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) | 25.0% | $0.01 0.02 coins | 0.0% | 283 | 292.8 | 0.97× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=peaceful) [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Nova | Polar Mesh (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-polar-mesh-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [G3SG1 | Polar Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-polar-camo-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Sticker | Team Dignitas | DreamHack 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-team-dignitas-dreamhack-2014) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $64.27 91.82 coins 3.51x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [Souvenir SSG 08 | Death Strike (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-ssg-08-death-strike-minimal-wear) [᠌ ᠌Liwon](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/%E1%A0%8C%20%E1%A0%8CLiwon) $18.29 26.13 coins $194 277 coins 10.60x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC [PP-Bizon | Urban Dashed (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-urban-dashed-field-tested) Hidden $18.29 26.13 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 08:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 9 Nov, 08:05 UTC | $18.29 | 90.90% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $18.29 | 90.91% | 12 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $18.49 | 90.92% | 12 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.45 | 90.90% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed classified 7.9% covert 8.0% extraordinary 5.1% high 3.0% restricted 6.0% consumer 70.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt