--- title: "Peak heat case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Peak heat ($5.90) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.92% from 22 items with odds, observed 94.62% over 4,708 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat rendered: 2026-11-11T14:10Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Peak heat](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Peak heat A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=all) Price · $5.90 · 8.43 coins Advertised RTP · 90.92% · EV $5.37 from 22 items Observed RTP, 30d · 94.62% · 4,708 openings, odds method Variance · 1.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 16.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.17% ±10.97 607 openings 7 days · 94.68% ±4.27 4,063 openings 30 days · 94.62% ±3.97 4,708 openings since tracking started · 94.62% ±3.97 4,708 openings 90.0% 104.0% 118.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=24h) | 607 | 106.17% ±11.0 | +2.7σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=7d) | 4,063 | 94.68% ±4.27 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat) | 4,708 | 94.62% ±3.97 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/peak-heat?window=all) | 4,708 | 94.62% ±3.97 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,724 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $105 150 coins | 0.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [AWP \| BOOM (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-boom-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $84.70 121 coins | 0.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [StatTrak™ AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $81.90 117 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Sticker \| Flammable (Foil) sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable-foil) | 1 in 6,250 | $78.40 112 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-r8-revolver-fade-well-worn) | 1 in 2,857 | $76.30 109 coins | 0.5% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× | | [★ Driver Gloves \| Overtake (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-overtake-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,176 | $73.50 105 coins | 1.2% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [Sticker \| dupreeh (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · exotic](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-dupreeh-foil-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 1,163 | $66.72 95.31 coins | 1.1% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.98× | | [Operation Bravo Case container · base](https://gambatracker.com/items/operation-bravo-case) | 1 in 500 | $56.15 80.22 coins | 2.1% | 10 | 9.4 | 1.06× | | [AWP \| Redline (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-redline-minimal-wear) | 1 in 200 | $51.53 73.61 coins | 4.8% | 28 | 23.6 | 1.19× | | [AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-red-laminate-battle-scarred) | 1 in 133 | $43.88 62.69 coins | 6.1% | 47 | 35.4 | 1.33× | | [Sticker \| GODSENT (Holo) \| Atlanta 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-godsent-holo-atlanta-2017) | 1 in 133 | $35.61 50.87 coins | 5.0% | 34 | 35.4 | 0.96× | | [Howl Pin pin · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/howl-pin) | 1 in 111 | $35.01 50.02 coins | 5.9% | 38 | 42.5 | 0.89× | | [Souvenir MAG-7 \| Core Breach (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-core-breach-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $22.65 32.36 coins | 4.2% | 44 | 47.2 | 0.93× | | [StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 87 | $20.86 29.8 coins | 4.5% | 67 | 54.3 | 1.23× | | [Sticker \| Snax (Foil) \| Krakow 2017 sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-snax-foil-krakow-2017) | 1 in 67 | $15.91 22.73 coins | 4.4% | 79 | 70.9 | 1.11× | | [Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Battle-Scarred) Souvenir · weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-setting-sun-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $7.48 10.68 coins | 3.8% | 147 | 127.5 | 1.15× | | [MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-abyssal-apparition-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $5.68 8.12 coins | 6.7% | 296 | 297.6 | 0.99× | | [MAG-7 \| Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $5.27 7.53 coins | 8.8% | 445 | 425.2 | 1.05× | | [AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) | 14.0% | $4.36 6.23 coins | 11.4% | 706 | 661.4 | 1.07× | | [Phoenix Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/phoenix-pin) | 20.0% | $3.35 4.79 coins | 12.5% | 932 | 944.8 | 0.99× | | [Sticker \| Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) | 20.0% | $2.56 3.66 coins | 9.6% | 917 | 944.8 | 0.97× | | [P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) | 21.0% | $1.75 2.5 coins | 6.8% | 924 | 992.0 | 0.93× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=peak-heat) [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [Phoenix Pin pin · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/phoenix-pin) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $3.35 4.79 coins 0.57x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) [Dxp\_h1](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Dxp_h1) $5.90 8.43 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 14:02 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [MAG-7 | Heat (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-heat-factory-new) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $5.27 7.53 coins 0.89x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [Sticker | Incineration (Holo) sticker · remarkable](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-incineration-holo) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $2.56 3.66 coins 0.43x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-nevermore-factory-new) [CekoS](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/CekoS) $5.90 8.43 coins $1.75 2.5 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC [AUG | Radiation Hazard (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-radiation-hazard-factory-new) Hidden $5.90 8.43 coins $4.36 6.23 coins 0.74x 2026-11-11 13:59 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $5.90 | 90.92% | 22 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $5.84 | 90.93% | 22 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.84 | 90.92% | 22 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.1% classified 1.3% exotic 0.1% extraordinary 1.0% base 0.2% remarkable 22.3% restricted 23.1% mil spec 2.7% pink 6.3% Mythical 9.0% industrial 14.0% high 20.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.92 on average: an expected loss of $9.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt