--- title: "Pearlescent case on CSGORoll: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Pearlescent ($7.23) on CSGORoll, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 90.93% from 19 items with odds, observed 92.78% over 5,504 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent rendered: 2026-11-11T16:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) / [Pearlescent](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent) # [CSGORoll](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/csgoroll) · Pearlescent A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=all) Price · $7.23 · 10.33 coins Advertised RTP · 90.93% · EV $6.58 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.78% · 5,504 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 14 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.76% ±17.87 488 openings 7 days · 91.75% ±5.93 4,518 openings 30 days · 92.78% ±5.38 5,504 openings since tracking started · 92.78% ±5.38 5,504 openings 73.0% 91.8% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=24h) | 488 | 91.76% ±17.9 | +0.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=7d) | 4,518 | 91.75% ±5.93 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent) | 5,504 | 92.78% ±5.38 | +0.7σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/csgoroll/pearlescent?window=all) | 5,504 | 92.78% ±5.38 | +0.7σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,510 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-desert-eagle-printstream-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $148 211 coins | 0.2% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Roll Cage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $86.10 123 coins | 32.7% | 153 | 137.8 | 1.11× | | [★ Hand Wraps \| Badlands (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-badlands-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $82.60 118 coins | 0.6% | 4 | 2.8 | 1.45× | | [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4) weapon · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-phase-4) | 1 in 333 | $67.30 96.14 coins | 3.1% | 15 | 16.5 | 0.91× | | [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 143 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 3.4% | 43 | 38.6 | 1.11× | | [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-factory-new) | 1 in 100 | $29.83 42.62 coins | 4.5% | 53 | 55.1 | 0.96× | | [USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $27.62 39.45 coins | 1.7% | 20 | 22.0 | 0.91× | | [MAC-10 \| Propaganda (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-propaganda-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $27.05 38.65 coins | 8.2% | 94 | 110.2 | 0.85× | | [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-well-worn) | 1 in 200 | $17.39 24.84 coins | 1.3% | 30 | 27.6 | 1.09× | | [StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $11.75 16.79 coins | 1.4% | 45 | 44.1 | 1.02× | | [P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) | 1 in 14 | $9.30 13.29 coins | 9.9% | 363 | 385.7 | 0.94× | | [P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $8.63 12.33 coins | 3.9% | 160 | 165.3 | 0.97× | | [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) | 1 in 17 | $5.70 8.14 coins | 5.2% | 327 | 330.6 | 0.99× | | [Tec-9 \| Isaac (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-isaac-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $4.26 6.09 coins | 3.9% | 315 | 330.6 | 0.95× | | [P250 \| Dark Filigree (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-dark-filigree-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $3.53 5.04 coins | 2.7% | 284 | 275.5 | 1.03× | | [G3SG1 \| Demeter (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-demeter-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $2.96 4.23 coins | 2.0% | 261 | 247.9 | 1.05× | | [M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) | 22.0% | $2.58 3.68 coins | 8.6% | 1,217 | 1212.2 | 1.00× | | [Sawed-Off \| Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) | 13.0% | $1.58 2.26 coins | 3.1% | 745 | 716.3 | 1.04× | | [PP-Bizon \| Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) | 25.2% | $0.87 1.24 coins | 3.3% | 1,381 | 1390.7 | 0.99× | Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate`, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=csgoroll&case=pearlescent) [M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) [Olaux](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Olaux) $7.23 10.33 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC [P2000 | Acid Etched (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-acid-etched-factory-new) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $9.30 13.29 coins 1.29x 2026-11-11 16:37 UTC [PP-Bizon | Photic Zone (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-photic-zone-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $0.87 1.24 coins 0.12x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-disco-tech-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $5.70 8.14 coins 0.79x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-well-worn) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $86.10 123 coins 11.91x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-famas-roll-cage-well-worn) [nosser banditcamp.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/nosser%20banditcamp.com) $7.23 10.33 coins $86.10 123 coins 11.91x 2026-11-11 16:33 UTC [Sawed-Off | Serenity (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-serenity-field-tested) [Queen](https://gambatracker.com/players/csgoroll/Queen) $7.23 10.33 coins $1.58 2.26 coins 0.22x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC [M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-griffin-battle-scarred) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $2.58 3.68 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC [P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-trigon-field-tested) Hidden $7.23 10.33 coins $8.63 12.33 coins 1.19x 2026-11-11 16:15 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.23 | 90.93% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.23 | 90.92% | 19 | | 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.13 | 90.88% | 19 | | 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.13 | 90.88% | 19 | | 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $7.14 | 90.94% | 19 | | 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.13 | 90.95% | 19 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.14 | 90.91% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 3.5% extraordinary 0.1% restricted 43.5% classified 6.2% Classified 6.0% mil spec 35.7% industrial 5.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.93 on average: an expected loss of $9.07 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt